Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹380.25(▲1.09%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

AARTISURFAarti Surfactants Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: Aarti Surfactants Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Specialty Chemicals

Risk ClassStable

Market Cap₹331 Cr

Primary DriverEarnings Quality

Flagium AI Risk Score

15 / 100

+2 QoQ

Early Deterioration

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in profitability and earnings quality. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is gradually increasing.

32.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹380.25▲1.09%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality

+15.0 pts

Final Composite Risk15 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 15 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction

⚠ Watch

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Industrial Margin Stress
Working Capital Expansion

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Working capital efficiency
Inventory turnover

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh

Industrial Margin Stress

📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 5 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

AARTISURF: EBITDA margin compressed by 4.6 bps YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2024

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 51.9%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 4 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

AARTISURF: Net Profit collapsed by 56.9% from FY2025 Q4 to FY2026 Q4.

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Inventory growth (40.3%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (17.3%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 5 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

AARTISURF: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.78x in FY2026 Q2 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	7.36	10.68	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+51.0	+46.0	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Specialty Chemicals (n=51 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹380.25(+1.09%)

1M Divergence-9.05%

1 Week-2.61%

1 Month-6.78%

6 Months-6.8%

1 Year-32.1%

2 Year-42.5%

3 Year-38.76%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in earnings quality remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of operational margins and profitability metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. The current structural trajectory supports a stable risk outlook.

AARTISURF • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score7.5%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing0%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.4922σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#2043 of 2716

Top 75.22% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-2.6%

1M-6.8%

6M-6.8%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹407.38

200 DMA₹424.16

150 DMA Slope-2.0770%Declining

Relative Strength-3.93%Lagging

Relative Turnover (RTR)1.1284

ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (20).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
AARTISURFAarti Surfactants Limited	15	32th	+2	6	+1	Earnings QualityStable
AARTIINDAarti Industries Limited	20	46th	-5	24	+0	Balance Sheet StressWatch
ANURASAnupam Rasayan India Limited	31	78th	+16	29	+2	Balance Sheet StressWatch
ACIArchean Chemical Industries Limited	35	84th	+20	22	+1	Earnings QualityWatch