ABCAPITALAditya Birla Capital Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Investment Company
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹78,326 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
14 / 100
0 QoQ
Stable
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure has stabilized in profitability and earnings quality. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. No major change in risk trend.

73.1th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
351.30.21%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+14.4 pts
Final Composite Risk14 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 014 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • NIM Compression
  • Operating Leverage Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (2)

CriticalHigh
NIM Compression
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 9 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
ABCAPITAL: NIM compressed by 384 bps YoY (to 5.55%). [Growth Adjusted: 27%]

"NIM is under severe pressure due to rising cost of funds or falling asset yields."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)3.094.02✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+52.0+56.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Investment Company (n=27 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
351.3(+0.21%)
1M Divergence+2.41%
1 Week-3.24%
1 Month+1.68%
6 Months+0.54%
1 Year+56.72%
2 Year+56.94%
3 Year+103.59%
Sector Average (1M)-0.73%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in earnings quality remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of operational margins and profitability metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. The current structural trajectory supports a stable risk outlook.

ABCAPITAL • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.90%
Trend QualityDeveloping
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score72.5%
Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)
Probability of Advancing90%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.0637σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1114 of 2716
Top 41.02% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-3.2%
1M+1.7%
6M+0.5%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA341.61
200 DMA328.3
150 DMA Slope+2.3699%Rising
Relative Strength+6.03%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.9723
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (10).
3PLAND3P Land Holdings Limited
5 Risk
Sector %ile31th
Delta+5
Active Flags7
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Stable

ABCAPITALAditya Birla Capital Limited
14 Risk
Sector %ile73th
Delta0
Active Flags2
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Stable

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
2.828th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY202645,6173,864-36,544178,880
FY202540,7243,410-27,935139,347
FY202434,5613,439-24,101109,540
FY202330,2014,824-24,05384,321