ABDLAllied Blenders and Distillers Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Breweries & Distilleries
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹11,370 Cr
Primary DriverCompetitive Position
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
35 / 100
+20 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in competitive position. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

84.6th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹546.6▼0.9%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Competitive Position
+15.0 pts
Growth Sustainability
+10.0 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+8.8 pts
Earnings Quality
+5.8 pts
Stability Adjustment
-5.0 pts
Final Composite Risk35 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 11 → 35 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
🚨 Escalate
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Industrial Margin Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Inventory turnover
  • Working capital efficiency

Active Risk Objects (7)

CriticalHigh
Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
ABDL: Net Profit collapsed by 52.1% from FY2025 Q4 to FY2026 Q4.

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Inventory growth (30.5%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-1.4%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
ABDL: Raw material costs consumed an additional 8.6% of revenue YoY.

"Operating efficiency is stabilizing. The rate of margin deterioration has slowed."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ1 FY2025
ABDL: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.35x in FY2025 Q1 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 4.6%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Revenue-Debt Divergence
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
ABDL: Revenue fell 6.1% while Debt rose 27.6% in 2026 vs 2025.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)6.339.05✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+31.0+52.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Breweries & Distilleries (n=14 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹546.6(-0.9%)
1M Divergence+0.52%
1 Week+0.31%
1 Month+2.78%
6 Months-13.07%
1 Year+38.45%
2 Year+78.83%
3 Year+78.83%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in competitive position suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

ABDL • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.65%
Trend QualityDeveloping
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score60%
Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)
Probability of Advancing65%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.1015σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#819 of 2716
Top 30.15% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+0.3%
1M+2.8%
6M-13.1%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹543.51
200 DMA₹538.78
150 DMA Slope+0.3049%Rising
Relative Strength-5.98%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.7317
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (14).
BCLINDBcl Industries Limited
5 Risk
Sector %ile8th
Delta+5
Active Flags13
Accel+1
Competitive Position

Stable

ASALCBRAssociated Alcohols & Breweries Ltd.
34 Risk
Sector %ile77th
Delta-3
Active Flags19
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Watch

ABDLAllied Blenders and Distillers Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile85th
Delta+20
Active Flags7
Accel+1
Competitive Position

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
6.261.6th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
5.656th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Revenue-Debt Divergence

2025

Industrial Margin Stress

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Working Capital Expansion

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20267,5972203621,146
FY20258,094195-678898
FY20247,6752186824