ABFRLAditya Birla Fashion and Retail Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Speciality Retail
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹8,080 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
36 / 100
-8 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in profitability and earnings quality. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

91.7th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹61.9▼1.37%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+12.0 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+8.6 pts
Stability Adjustment
+15.0 pts
Final Composite Risk36 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 11 → 36 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Operating Leverage Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (5)

CriticalHigh
Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (11.0%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Operating margin declined by 3.5 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 12 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
ABFRL: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of -0.34x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Interest coverage is dangerously low. Even a minor fall in profit could trigger a default."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 3 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2024
ABFRL: Net Profit collapsed by 1059.9% from FY2023 Q3 to FY2024 Q3.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)4.923.65⚠️ HIGH
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+30.0+60.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Speciality Retail (n=13 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹61.9(-1.37%)
1M Divergence-3.96%
1 Week-4.58%
1 Month-3.58%
6 Months-18.96%
1 Year-29.31%
2 Year-78.48%
3 Year-69.45%
Sector Average (1M)+0.38%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

ABFRL • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score0%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.5829σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#2188 of 2716
Top 80.56% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-4.6%
1M-3.6%
6M-19.0%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹69.63
200 DMA₹73.15
150 DMA Slope-3.8117%Declining
Relative Strength-13.47%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.6690
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (6).
ABLBLAditya Birla Lifestyle Brands Limited
5 Risk
Sector %ile42th
Delta0
Active Flags4
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Stable

ABFRLAditya Birla Fashion and Retail Limited
36 Risk
Sector %ile92th
Delta-8
Active Flags5
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Watch

GOCOLORSGOCOLORS
39 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+29
Active Flags11
Accel+3
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
440th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
4.242.4th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20268,487-8301611,695
FY20257,550-4561,6441,439
FY202414,233-7361,3414,205
FY202312,534-596362,306