ACMESOLARAcme Solar Holdings Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Power Generation
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹15,325 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
10 / 100
+5 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile is stable with manageable leverage. Weakness is detected in project execution and margins. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

17.6th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
334.758.97%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+20.0 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+5.3 pts
Stability Adjustment
-15.0 pts
Final Composite Risk10 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 010 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Operating Leverage Stress
  • Low Interest Coverage
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (3)

CriticalHigh
Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Operating margin declined by 8.5 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 7 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
ACMESOLAR: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.56x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Earnings buffer for interest payments is narrowing. Monitor for margin pressure."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)0.917.30✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+56.0+39.5✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Power Generation (n=18 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
334.75(+8.97%)
1M Divergence+10.15%
1 Week+10.57%
1 Month+10.53%
6 Months+52.82%
1 Year+29.89%
2 Year+22.26%
3 Year+22.26%
Sector Average (1M)+0.38%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in earnings quality remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of operational margins and profitability metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

ACMESOLAR • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.84%
Trend QualityDeveloping
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score85%
Readiness LabelHigh (Phase Transition Imminent)
Probability of Advancing84%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+1.3593σ
Strong positive momentum leadership
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#160 of 2716
Top 5.89% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+10.6%
1M+10.5%
6M+52.8%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA252.07
200 DMA261.25
150 DMA Slope+0.5948%Rising
Relative Strength+58.31%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.3769
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (26.5).

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
6.564.8th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20262,5074981,24918,988
FY20251,5752511,54310,423