ADFFOODSADF Foods Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Packaged Foods
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹2,132 Cr
Primary DriverGovernance
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
13 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in governance. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

27.3th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹273.15▲2.38%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Stability Adjustment
+13.0 pts
Final Composite Risk13 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 5 → 13 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Inventory Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Inventory turnover
  • Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (7)

CriticalHigh
Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Operating margin declined by 7.0 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Operating efficiency is stabilizing. The rate of margin deterioration has slowed."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Inventory growth (34.6%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (2.1%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Aggressive Capex (29.7%) amidst slow revenue growth (2.1%).

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalFY2026
ADFFOODS: OCF below Net Profit in 3/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ1 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 4.6%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)6.510.56✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+53.0+51.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Packaged Foods (n=12 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹273.15(+2.38%)
1M Divergence+1.14%
1 Week-0.98%
1 Month+3.41%
6 Months+34.06%
1 Year+5.28%
2 Year+29%
3 Year+61.69%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in governance remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of structural transparency and audit trails confirm the absence of material structural stress. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

ADFFOODS • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.89%
Trend QualityStabilizing
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score70%
Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)
Probability of Advancing89%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+1.1001σ
Strong positive momentum leadership
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#213 of 2716
Top 7.84% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-1.0%
1M+3.4%
6M+34.1%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹214.5
200 DMA₹216.09
150 DMA Slope+3.7493%Rising
Relative Strength+39.55%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)2.5454
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (15).
BBTCThe Bombay Burmah Trading Corporation Limited
11 Risk
Sector %ile0th
Delta0
Active Flags6
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Stable

ADFFOODSADF Foods Limited
13 Risk
Sector %ile27th
Delta-5
Active Flags7
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

DIAMONDYDDIAMONDYD
26 Risk
Sector %ile82th
Delta-5
Active Flags25
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Watch

TASTYBITETASTYBITE
35 Risk
Sector %ile91th
Delta+25
Active Flags17
Accel+1
Competitive Position

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Capex Efficiency Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Cash Conversion Deficit

2025

Margin Compression

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Cash Conversion Deficit

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Cash Conversion Deficit

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY202670390589
FY202560469379
FY20245317470-
FY20234615651-