AEQUSAequs Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Aerospace & Defense
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹8,122 Cr
Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
20 / 100
+15 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in balance sheet stress. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

50.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +2 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹181.6▼1.76%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress
+20.0 pts
Final Composite Risk20 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 20 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🚨 Escalate
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Working Capital Expansion
  • Low Interest Coverage
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Working capital efficiency
  • Operating profit margins

Active Risk Objects (2)

CriticalHigh
Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 228.0%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
AEQUS: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 0.07x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Interest coverage is dangerously low. Even a minor fall in profit could trigger a default."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)1.827.38✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+46.0+46.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Aerospace & Defense (n=21 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹181.6(-1.76%)
1M Divergence-5.59%
1 Week-14.19%
1 Month-3.33%
6 MonthsN/A
1 YearN/A
2 Year+32.08%
3 Year+32.08%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in balance sheet stress suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

AEQUS • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.14%
Trend QualityEarly Base
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score17.5%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing14%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.3911σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#517 of 2716
Top 19.04% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-14.2%
1M-3.3%
6M+0.0%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹N/A
200 DMA₹N/A
150 DMA SlopeN/ANeutral
Relative Strength0.00%Neutral
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.0000
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (20).
AEQUSAequs Limited
20 Risk
Sector %ile50th
Delta+15
Active Flags2
Accel+2
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

AVANTELAvantel Limited
30 Risk
Sector %ile60th
Delta-5
Active Flags13
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Watch

AXISCADESAXISCADES Technologies Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile80th
Delta+27
Active Flags14
Accel+1
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

BDLBharat Dynamics Limited
40 Risk
Sector %ile95th
Delta+5
Active Flags23
Accel+2
Earnings Quality

Moderate Deterioration

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Working Capital Expansion

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20261,296-113-99404