AFCONSAfcons Infrastructure Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Civil Construction
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹10,401 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
35 / 100
+25 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile is stable with manageable leverage. Weakness is detected in project execution and margins. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

90.4th %ile (Sector)Accel: +2 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹327.15▼1.27%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+13.4 pts
Competitive Position
+13.0 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+7.9 pts
Stability Adjustment
+1.0 pts
Final Composite Risk35 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 35 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🚨 Escalate
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Operating Leverage Stress
  • Low Interest Coverage
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (5)

CriticalHigh
Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (11.0%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 7 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
AFCONS: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 0.61x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Interest coverage is dangerously low. Even a minor fall in profit could trigger a default."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
AFCONS: Net Profit collapsed by 179.8% from FY2025 Q4 to FY2026 Q4.

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Revenue-Debt Divergence
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
AFCONS: Revenue fell 5.4% while Debt rose 58.3% in 2026 vs 2025.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)3.184.13✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+31.0+56.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Civil Construction (n=53 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹327.15(-1.27%)
1M Divergence-4.07%
1 Week+1.44%
1 Month-3.69%
6 Months-18.27%
1 Year-22.87%
2 Year-34.68%
3 Year-34.68%
Sector Average (1M)+0.38%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

AFCONS • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score15%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.0841σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1161 of 2716
Top 42.75% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+1.4%
1M-3.7%
6M-18.3%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹350.41
200 DMA₹373.54
150 DMA Slope-4.6441%Declining
Relative Strength-12.78%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.3028
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (10).
ABINFRAA B Infrabuild Limited
0 Risk
Sector %ile0th
Delta0
Active Flags1
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

ASHOKAAshoka Buildcon Limited
25 Risk
Sector %ile81th
Delta-5
Active Flags15
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Watch

AFCONSAfcons Infrastructure Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile90th
Delta+25
Active Flags5
Accel+2
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
3.333.1th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
4.747.2th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
1.413.6th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Revenue-Debt Divergence

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY202612,322251-1433,538
FY202513,023487-1322,236