Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹424.7(▲1.46%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

AGARINDAgarwal Industrial Corporation Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: Agarwal Industrial Corporation Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Petrochemicals

Risk ClassStable

Market Cap₹785 Cr

Primary DriverCompetitive Position

Flagium AI Risk Score

17 / 100

-5 QoQ

Improving

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in competitive position. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

42.9th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹424.7▲1.46%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Competitive Position

+15.0 pts

Stability Adjustment

+2.0 pts

Final Composite Risk17 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 17 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction

🟢 Improving

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Relative Growth Weakness
Industrial Margin Stress

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Inventory turnover
Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (8)

CriticalHigh

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (13.1%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

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Impact Weight15/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Inventory growth (41.8%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-23.7%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs

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Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

AGARIND: Net Profit collapsed by 89.9% from FY2025 Q3 to FY2026 Q3.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Operating Leverage Stress

📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 5 Years

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Impact Weight10/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Industrial Margin Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

AGARIND: EBITDA margin compressed by 1.6 bps YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

AGARIND: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.63x in FY2026 Q3 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 36.0%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Capex Efficiency Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Aggressive Capex (24.4%) amidst slow revenue growth (-23.7%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	4.27	7.57	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+49.0	+47.5	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Petrochemicals (n=8 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹424.7(+1.46%)

1M Divergence-0.41%

1 Week-0.09%

1 Month+1.86%

6 Months-43.35%

1 Year-55.09%

2 Year-51.26%

3 Year-28.39%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in competitive position remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

AGARIND • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score7.5%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing0%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.9138σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#2496 of 2716

Top 91.90% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-0.1%

1M+1.9%

6M-43.4%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹611.31

200 DMA₹681.52

150 DMA Slope-9.8964%Declining

Relative Strength-38.87%Lagging

Relative Turnover (RTR)0.8712

ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (18.5).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
DCWDCW	13	14th	-5	21	+0	Balance Sheet StressStable
AGARINDAgarwal Industrial Corporation Limited	17	43th	-5	8	+0	Competitive PositionStable
SPLPETROSPLPETRO	30	71th	-5	18	+0	Competitive PositionWatch
SWANCORPSWAN CORP LIMITED	33	86th	-8	32	+0	GovernanceWatch