AGARWALEYEDr. Agarwal's Health Care Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Hospital
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹13,148 Cr
Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
19 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in balance sheet stress. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

62.5th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹476.55▼1%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress
+8.0 pts
Stability Adjustment
+11.0 pts
Final Composite Risk19 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 19 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Industrial Margin Stress
  • Working Capital Expansion
  • Capex Efficiency Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Working capital efficiency

Active Risk Objects (4)

CriticalHigh
Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Aggressive Capex (42.0%) amidst slow revenue growth (-76.2%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 7.4%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
AGARWALEYE: EBITDA margin compressed by 1.5 bps YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2025
AGARWALEYE: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 2.45x in FY2025 Q3 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)4.456.95✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+47.0+51.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Hospital (n=17 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹476.55(-1%)
1M Divergence+4.8%
1 Week-0.64%
1 Month+7.07%
6 Months-5.32%
1 Year+42.66%
2 Year+18.84%
3 Year+18.84%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in balance sheet stress remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

AGARWALEYE • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.9%
Trend QualityEarly Base
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score30%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing9%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.0708σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1134 of 2716
Top 41.75% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-0.6%
1M+7.1%
6M-5.3%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹472.28
200 DMA₹470.28
150 DMA Slope-1.0014%Declining
Relative Strength-2.39%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.4247
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (15).
AGARWALEYEDr. Agarwal's Health Care Limited
19 Risk
Sector %ile63th
Delta-5
Active Flags4
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Stable

HCGHealthcare Global Enterprises Limited
26 Risk
Sector %ile75th
Delta+3
Active Flags24
Accel+1
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

GPTHEALTHGPTHEALTH
30 Risk
Sector %ile81th
Delta-5
Active Flags22
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Watch

JLHLJLHL
30 Risk
Sector %ile81th
Delta+15
Active Flags10
Accel+4
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
660th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Capex Efficiency Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20262,125168519157
FY20251,757110360247