AGIAGI Greenpac Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Packaging
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹3,445 Cr
Primary DriverCompetitive Position
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
5 / 100
+5 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in competitive position. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

4.5th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹611.35▲2.12%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Competitive Position
+11.5 pts
Stability Adjustment
-7.0 pts
Final Composite Risk5 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 5 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Governance Integrity Shock
  • Relative Growth Weakness
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Inventory turnover
  • Working capital efficiency

Active Risk Objects (5)

CriticalHigh
Governance Integrity Shock
⚖️ Governance SignalsQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ1 FY2027
AGI: Key governance event detected: DIRECTOR_RESIGNATION.

"Governance concerns are receding. Promoter alignment and board stability are improving."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Inventory growth (15.2%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-0.8%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 32.0%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Aggressive Capex (22.5%) amidst slow revenue growth (-0.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)3.186.71✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+61.0+51.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Packaging (n=23 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹611.35(+2.12%)
1M Divergence-5.84%
1 Week+2.35%
1 Month-3.57%
6 Months-18.97%
1 Year-27.45%
2 Year-4.91%
3 Year+6.05%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in competitive position remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

AGI • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score15%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.0656σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1118 of 2716
Top 41.16% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+2.4%
1M-3.6%
6M-19.0%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹649.25
200 DMA₹706.72
150 DMA Slope-5.1887%Declining
Relative Strength-14.41%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)3.7675
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (15).
AGIAGI Greenpac Limited
5 Risk
Sector %ile5th
Delta+5
Active Flags5
Accel+1
Competitive Position

Stable

AERONEUAeroflex Neu Limited
15 Risk
Sector %ile36th
Delta+5
Active Flags19
Accel+1
Competitive Position

Stable

AMDINDAMD Industries Limited
19 Risk
Sector %ile55th
Delta-5
Active Flags24
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Stable

ARROWGREENArrow Greentech Limited
47 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+27
Active Flags11
Accel+1
Competitive Position

Moderate Deterioration

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
2.323.2th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Capex Efficiency Stress

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Capex Efficiency Stress

2024

Inventory Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20262,760352571239
FY20252,604322429552
FY20242,445251588616
FY20232,307262523732