AHLEASTAsian Hotels (East) Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Hotels & Resorts
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹278 Cr
Primary DriverGovernance
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
35 / 100
-8 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in governance. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

92.9th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹156.71▼0.77%
PeriodQ3 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Stability Adjustment
+35.0 pts
Final Composite Risk35 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 7 → 35 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Operating Leverage Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Debt growth
  • Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh
Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (11.0%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Operating margin declined by 32.8 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 7 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
AHLEAST: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of -659.22x in FY2026 Q3 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Interest coverage is dangerously low. Even a minor fall in profit could trigger a default."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 6 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
AHLEAST: Net Profit collapsed by 1189.6% from FY2025 Q3 to FY2026 Q3.

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalFY2026
AHLEAST: OCF below Net Profit in 3/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)72.78⚠️ HIGH
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+31.0+57.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Hotels & Resorts (n=29 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹156.71(-0.77%)
1M Divergence-3.3%
1 Week-5.2%
1 Month-2.92%
6 Months+15.81%
1 Year+12.61%
2 Year+13.52%
3 Year+36.57%
Sector Average (1M)+0.38%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in governance suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in structural transparency and audit trails, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

AHLEAST • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.67%
Trend QualityStabilizing
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score57.5%
Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)
Probability of Advancing67%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.1848σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1381 of 2716
Top 50.85% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-5.2%
1M-2.9%
6M+15.8%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹148.78
200 DMA₹149.66
150 DMA Slope+0.9923%Rising
Relative Strength+18.62%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.1040
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (9).
ADVANIHOTRAdvani Hotels & Resorts (India) Limited
20 Risk
Sector %ile82th
Delta+5
Active Flags14
Accel+4
Competitive Position

Watch

AHLEASTAsian Hotels (East) Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile93th
Delta-8
Active Flags6
Accel+0
Governance

Watch

HLVLTDHLVLTD
35 Risk
Sector %ile93th
Delta0
Active Flags14
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Cash Conversion Deficit

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Cash Conversion Deficit

2024

Cash Conversion Deficit

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY2025154180330
FY202413732-385334
FY202397259-
FY202298-343-