AKASHAkash Infra-Projects Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Civil Construction
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹42 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
11 / 100
+5 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile is stable with manageable leverage. Weakness is detected in project execution and margins. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

51.9th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹27.36▲1.52%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+10.6 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+8.6 pts
Stability Adjustment
-8.0 pts
Final Composite Risk11 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has declined from 16 → 11 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Operating Leverage Stress
  • Low Interest Coverage
  • Profit Collapse
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Debt growth
  • Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh
Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 11 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
AKASH: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.26x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Interest coverage is dangerously low. Even a minor fall in profit could trigger a default."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 4 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
AKASH: Net Profit collapsed by 72.9% from FY2025 Q4 to FY2026 Q4.

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ1 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalFY2026
AKASH: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Negative FCF Streak
⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2024
AKASH: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"Free cash flow pressure is easing as capital intensity or working capital stress recedes."

Revenue-Debt Divergence
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2024
AKASH: Revenue fell 1.3% while Debt rose 45.7% in 2024 vs 2023.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)4.254.13⚠️ HIGH
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+55.0+56.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Civil Construction (n=53 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹27.36(+1.52%)
1M Divergence+2.36%
1 Week+0.15%
1 Month+2.74%
6 Months+8.14%
1 Year-6.65%
2 Year-21.6%
3 Year+8.57%
Sector Average (1M)+0.38%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in earnings quality remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of operational margins and profitability metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

AKASH • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.5%
Trend QualityEarly Base
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score40%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing5%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.0005σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#997 of 2716
Top 36.71% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+0.1%
1M+2.7%
6M+8.1%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹26.15
200 DMA₹26.65
150 DMA Slope-1.0643%Declining
Relative Strength+12.98%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.2351
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (10).
AHLUCONTAhluwalia Contracts (India) Limited
9 Risk
Sector %ile44th
Delta+5
Active Flags9
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Stable

AKASHAkash Infra-Projects Limited
11 Risk
Sector %ile52th
Delta+5
Active Flags6
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Stable

ASHOKAAshoka Buildcon Limited
25 Risk
Sector %ile81th
Delta-5
Active Flags15
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Watch

AFCONSAfcons Infrastructure Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile90th
Delta+25
Active Flags12
Accel+2
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
4.747.2th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
4.242.4th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Cash Conversion Deficit

2025

Cash Conversion Deficit

2024

Cash Conversion Deficit

2024

Revenue-Debt Divergence

2024

Negative FCF Streak

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY2026831-290
FY20255911084
FY2024620-2388
FY2023631-3361