ALICONAlicon Castalloy Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Auto Components & Equipments
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹1,219 Cr
Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
20 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in balance sheet stress. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

74.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹663.8▼0.5%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress
+7.0 pts
Stability Adjustment
+13.0 pts
Final Composite Risk20 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 7 → 20 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Operating Leverage Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Debt growth
  • Working capital efficiency

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh
Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ1 FY2026
Operating margin declined by 2.2 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 3 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ1 FY2026
ALICON: Net Profit collapsed by 51.1% from FY2025 Q1 to FY2026 Q1.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 6 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
ALICON: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 2.05x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Earnings buffer for interest payments is narrowing. Monitor for margin pressure."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by -5.9%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)5.185.20✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+46.0+55.5📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Auto Components & Equipments (n=74 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹663.8(-0.5%)
1M Divergence-6.84%
1 Week+1.58%
1 Month-4.57%
6 Months-23.39%
1 Year-25.28%
2 Year-37.05%
3 Year-9.92%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in balance sheet stress suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

ALICON • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score0%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.6410σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#2258 of 2716
Top 83.14% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+1.6%
1M-4.6%
6M-23.4%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹765.57
200 DMA₹785.22
150 DMA Slope-2.8994%Declining
Relative Strength-19.60%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.5174
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (10.5).
ALICONAlicon Castalloy Limited
20 Risk
Sector %ile74th
Delta-5
Active Flags6
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

ARE&MAmara Raja Energy & Mobility Limited
30 Risk
Sector %ile89th
Delta-5
Active Flags19
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Watch

HITECHGEARHITECHGEAR
42 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+6
Active Flags28
Accel+2
Earnings Quality

Moderate Deterioration

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
6.564.8th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Margin Compression

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20261,78434239325
FY20251,72446205346
FY20241,56361157306
FY20231,4055787301