ALKALIAlkali Metals Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Specialty Chemicals
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹63 Cr
Primary DriverGovernance
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
20 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in governance. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

46.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹97.2▲11.97%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Stability Adjustment
+20.0 pts
Final Composite Risk20 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has declined from 21 → 20 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Industrial Margin Stress
  • Working Capital Expansion
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Working capital efficiency
  • Inventory turnover

Active Risk Objects (5)

CriticalHigh
Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
ALKALI: EBITDA margin compressed by 14.3 bps YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2024
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 43.0%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 10 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
ALKALI: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of -1.01x in FY2026 Q3 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 5 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2025
ALKALI: Net Profit collapsed by 1456.5% from FY2024 Q3 to FY2025 Q3.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2024
Inventory growth (8.8%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-18.3%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)5.0810.68✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+46.0+46.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Specialty Chemicals (n=51 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹97.2(+11.97%)
1M Divergence+42.85%
1 Week+30.38%
1 Month+45.12%
6 Months+22.2%
1 Year-2.82%
2 Year-10.04%
3 Year-1.09%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in governance suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in structural transparency and audit trails, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

ALKALI • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.31%
Trend QualityStabilizing
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score65%
Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)
Probability of Advancing31%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+2.2628σ
Strong positive momentum leadership
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#77 of 2716
Top 2.84% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+30.4%
1M+45.1%
6M+22.2%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹72.87
200 DMA₹77.33
150 DMA Slope-4.0026%Declining
Relative Strength+24.51%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.6476
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (20).
ALKALIAlkali Metals Limited
20 Risk
Sector %ile46th
Delta-5
Active Flags5
Accel+0
Governance

Watch

AARTIINDAarti Industries Limited
20 Risk
Sector %ile46th
Delta-5
Active Flags24
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

ANURASAnupam Rasayan India Limited
31 Risk
Sector %ile78th
Delta+16
Active Flags29
Accel+2
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

ACIArchean Chemical Industries Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile84th
Delta+20
Active Flags22
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2025

Industrial Margin Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Inventory Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY2026941318
FY202584-6518
FY2024841618
FY20238931119