ALMONDZAlmondz Global Securities Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Stockbroking & Allied
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹274 Cr
Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
4 / 100
+4 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in balance sheet stress. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is gradually increasing.

15.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
13.141.05%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress
+3.8 pts
Final Composite Risk4 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has declined from 54 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Operating Leverage Stress
  • Profit Collapse
  • Low Interest Coverage
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating cash flow
  • Debt growth
  • Operating profit margins

Active Risk Objects (4)

CriticalHigh
Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalFY2026
ALMONDZ: OCF below Net Profit in 3/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2025
ALMONDZ: Net Profit collapsed by 87.8% from FY2024 Q3 to FY2025 Q3.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
ALMONDZ: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.87x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Earnings buffer for interest payments is narrowing. Monitor for margin pressure."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)1.925.23✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+62.0+51.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Stockbroking & Allied (n=21 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
13.14(-1.05%)
1M Divergence-17.9%
1 Week-4.78%
1 Month-20.27%
6 Months-23.52%
1 Year-36.4%
2 Year-32.82%
3 Year+7.35%
Sector Average (1M)-2.37%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in balance sheet stress remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. The current structural trajectory supports a stable risk outlook.

ALMONDZ • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score0%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.8767σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#2472 of 2716
Top 91.02% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-4.8%
1M-20.3%
6M-23.5%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA15.82
200 DMA16.71
150 DMA Slope-2.5082%Declining
Relative Strength-18.03%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.4075
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (15).

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
7.474.4th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Cash Conversion Deficit

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Cash Conversion Deficit

2024

Cash Conversion Deficit

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY202619229-445
FY202515117-647
FY20241203419-
FY20238016-1418