ANDHRAPAPANDHRA PAPER LIMITED Forensic Risk Analysis

Paper & Paper Products
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹1,334 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
25 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in profitability and earnings quality. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

41.7th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹61.82▼0.82%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+6.6 pts
Stability Adjustment
+18.0 pts
Final Composite Risk25 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 5 → 25 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Inventory Stress
  • Working Capital Expansion
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Working capital efficiency
  • Inventory turnover

Active Risk Objects (10)

CriticalHigh
Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Aggressive Capex (32.1%) amidst slow revenue growth (-19.5%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Operating margin declined by 19.9 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 64.5%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
ANDHRAPAP: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of -5.60x in FY2026 Q2 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Inventory Stress
📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 5 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Inventory growth (37.5%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-19.5%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 7 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
ANDHRAPAP: Net Profit collapsed by 148.6% from FY2025 Q2 to FY2026 Q2.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Negative FCF Streak
⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
ANDHRAPAP: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"High capital expenditure and low OCF are draining cash. Debt levels may rise sharply."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
ANDHRAPAP: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Operating Leverage Stress
📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 5 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Revenue-Debt Divergence
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2025
ANDHRAPAP: Revenue fell 14.0% while Debt rose 146.8% in 2025 vs 2024.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)7.513.49✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+41.0+37.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Paper & Paper Products (n=13 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹61.82(-0.82%)
1M Divergence-9.4%
1 Week-1.62%
1 Month-7.14%
6 Months-7.72%
1 Year-19.58%
2 Year-36.17%
3 Year-25.88%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

ANDHRAPAP • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score0%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.5504σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#2140 of 2716
Top 78.79% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-1.6%
1M-7.1%
6M-7.7%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹66.77
200 DMA₹69.65
150 DMA Slope-2.7886%Declining
Relative Strength-2.45%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.4235
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (29).
ANDHRAPAPANDHRA PAPER LIMITED
25 Risk
Sector %ile42th
Delta-5
Active Flags10
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Watch

ASTRONAstron Paper & Board Mill Limited
29 Risk
Sector %ile50th
Delta-5
Active Flags28
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

KUANTUMKUANTUM
40 Risk
Sector %ile83th
Delta+4
Active Flags40
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Moderate Deterioration

ABRELAditya Birla Real Estate Limited
60 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+18
Active Flags42
Accel+1
Balance Sheet Stress

Elevated Structural Stress

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
5.656th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Capex Efficiency Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Negative FCF Streak

2026

Cash Conversion Deficit

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Margin Compression

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Capex Efficiency Stress

2025

Cash Conversion Deficit

2025

Revenue-Debt Divergence

2024

Inventory Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Inventory Stress

2024

Capex Efficiency Stress

2024

Revenue-Debt Divergence

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20261,78519105232
FY20251,63089-55283
FY20241,896340319114
FY20232,15052253655