Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹77.97(▼2.43%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

ANDHRSUGARThe Andhra Sugars Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: The Andhra Sugars Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Commodity Chemicals

Risk ClassStable

Market Cap₹992 Cr

Primary DriverEarnings Quality

Flagium AI Risk Score

12 / 100

0 QoQ

Stable

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure has stabilized in profitability and earnings quality. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. No major change in risk trend.

7.1th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹77.97▼2.43%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality

+11.9 pts

Final Composite Risk12 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 4 → 12 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

⚠ Watch

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Margin Compression
Industrial Margin Stress

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Inventory turnover
Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (8)

CriticalHigh

Industrial Margin Stress

📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 5 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

ANDHRSUGAR: EBITDA margin compressed by 3.5 bps YoY and Raw material costs consumed an additional 6.5% of revenue YoY.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 6 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

ANDHRSUGAR: Net Profit collapsed by 76.3% from FY2024 Q4 to FY2025 Q4.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2025

Inventory growth (14.8%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (0.8%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Margin Compression

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2025

Operating margin declined by 2.6 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Operating efficiency is stabilizing. The rate of margin deterioration has slowed."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by -11.4%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ3 FY2025

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Revenue-Debt Divergence

🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalFY2024

ANDHRSUGAR: Revenue fell 19.4% while Debt rose 31.2% in 2024 vs 2023.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	5.33	11.00	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+54.0	+35.0	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Commodity Chemicals (n=15 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹77.97(-2.43%)

1M Divergence-22.44%

1 Week-10.22%

1 Month-20.17%

6 Months+3.03%

1 Year+6.47%

2 Year-20.49%

3 Year-28.72%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in earnings quality remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of operational margins and profitability metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. The current structural trajectory supports a stable risk outlook.

ANDHRSUGAR • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.75%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score35%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing75%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.4306σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#1943 of 2716

Top 71.54% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-10.2%

1M-20.2%

6M+3.0%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹78.81

200 DMA₹78.45

150 DMA Slope+2.3905%Rising

Relative Strength+8.51%Leading

Relative Turnover (RTR)2.2960

ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (31).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
ANDHRSUGARThe Andhra Sugars Limited	12	7th	0	8	+0	Earnings QualityStable
GUJALKALIGUJALKALI	13	14th	+5	23	+1	Balance Sheet StressStable
AMNPLSTAmines & Plasticizers Limited	31	50th	-5	13	+0	Competitive PositionWatch
CHEMFABCHEMFAB	32	57th	-3	25	+0	Balance Sheet StressWatch