ANTELOPUSAntelopus Selan Energy Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Oil Exploration & Production
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹1,871 Cr
Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
25 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile is stable with manageable leverage. Pressure is receding in balance sheet stress. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

50.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹854.2▲5%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress
+6.4 pts
Stability Adjustment
+19.0 pts
Final Composite Risk25 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 25 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Inventory Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Inventory turnover
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh
Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Operating margin declined by 12.3 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Aggressive Capex (104.1%) amidst slow revenue growth (-19.4%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Inventory growth (113.3%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-19.4%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 24.8%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)510.48✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+41.0+41.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Oil Exploration & Production (n=5 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹854.2(+5%)
1M Divergence+20.86%
1 Week+11.39%
1 Month+23.13%
6 Months+120.58%
1 YearN/A
2 Year+54.82%
3 Year+54.82%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in balance sheet stress suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

ANTELOPUS • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.85%
Trend QualityStabilizing
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score62.5%
Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)
Probability of Advancing85%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+2.4640σ
Strong positive momentum leadership
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#68 of 2716
Top 2.50% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+11.4%
1M+23.1%
6M+120.6%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹548.03
200 DMA₹N/A
150 DMA Slope+5.0499%Rising
Relative Strength+126.07%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.0000
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (25).
ANTELOPUSAntelopus Selan Energy Limited
25 Risk
Sector %ile50th
Delta-5
Active Flags6
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

OILOil India Limited
29 Risk
Sector %ile75th
Delta+5
Active Flags16
Accel+1
Competitive Position

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
6.868th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Capex Efficiency Stress

2024

Inventory Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY202628890125-
FY202527374126-
FY20241773372-
FY20231303169-