Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹0.81(▲0%)

Reporting PeriodQ3 FY26

ANTGRAPHICAntarctica Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: Antarctica Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Packaging

Risk ClassStable

Market Cap₹13 Cr

Primary DriverGovernance

Flagium AI Risk Score

5 / 100

-5 QoQ

Improving

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in governance. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

4.5th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹0.81▲0%

PeriodQ3 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Stability Adjustment

+5.0 pts

Final Composite Risk5 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has declined from 14 → 5 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

🟢 Improving

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Margin Compression
Operating Leverage Stress
Low Interest Coverage

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating cash flow
Operating profit margins
Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalFY2026

ANTGRAPHIC: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Negative FCF Streak

⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalFY2026

ANTGRAPHIC: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"High capital expenditure and low OCF are draining cash. Debt levels may rise sharply."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 5 Qtrs

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Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2025

ANTGRAPHIC: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of -62.31x in FY2025 Q2 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Margin Compression

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2025

Operating margin declined by 9.1 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Operating efficiency is stabilizing. The rate of margin deterioration has slowed."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2025

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 3 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2024

ANTGRAPHIC: Net Profit collapsed by 390.9% from FY2023 Q4 to FY2024 Q4.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	7.42	6.71	⚠️ HIGH
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+61.0	+51.0	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Packaging (n=23 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹0.81(+0%)

1M Divergence-3.44%

1 Week+1.25%

1 Month-5.81%

6 Months-15.62%

1 Year-24.3%

2 Year-49.38%

3 Year+24.62%

Sector Average (1M)-2.37%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in governance remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of structural transparency and audit trails confirm the absence of material structural stress. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

ANTGRAPHIC • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score7.5%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing0%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.5210σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#2094 of 2716

Top 77.10% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W+1.3%

1M-5.8%

6M-15.6%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹0.91

200 DMA₹0.96

150 DMA Slope-3.4293%Declining

Relative Strength-11.54%Lagging

Relative Turnover (RTR)0.9636

ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (15).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
ANTGRAPHICAntarctica Limited	5	5th	-5	6	+0	GovernanceStable
AERONEUAeroflex Neu Limited	15	36th	+5	19	+1	Competitive PositionStable
AMDINDAMD Industries Limited	19	55th	-5	24	+0	Balance Sheet StressStable
ARROWGREENArrow Greentech Limited	47	100th	+27	11	+1	Competitive PositionModerate Deterioration