APCOTEXINDApcotex Industries Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Rubber
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹1,913 Cr
Primary DriverGovernance
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
5 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in governance. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

0.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹494.1▲0.28%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Stability Adjustment
+5.0 pts
Final Composite Risk5 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 4 → 5 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Operating Leverage Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Inventory turnover
  • Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh
Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2024
APCOTEXIND: Net Profit collapsed by 50.3% from FY2023 Q2 to FY2024 Q2.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2024
Inventory growth (19.3%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-1.7%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2024
APCOTEXIND: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion has normalized in the latest period. Operational cash flow is back in sync."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2024
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 22.0%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)3.756.76✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+61.0+54.5✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Rubber (n=4 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹494.1(+0.28%)
1M Divergence+20.52%
1 Week+0.85%
1 Month+22.79%
6 Months+27.43%
1 Year+32.91%
2 Year+25.48%
3 Year+4.81%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in governance remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of structural transparency and audit trails confirm the absence of material structural stress. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

APCOTEXIND • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.88%
Trend QualityStabilizing
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score70%
Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)
Probability of Advancing88%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+1.0299σ
Strong positive momentum leadership
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#229 of 2716
Top 8.43% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+0.8%
1M+22.8%
6M+27.4%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹386.45
200 DMA₹387.39
150 DMA Slope+3.9558%Rising
Relative Strength+32.41%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)3.5481
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (11.5).
APCOTEXINDApcotex Industries Limited
5 Risk
Sector %ile0th
Delta-5
Active Flags6
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

PIXTRANSPIXTRANS
14 Risk
Sector %ile67th
Delta0
Active Flags7
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Stable

GRPLTDGRPLTD
49 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+9
Active Flags27
Accel+4
Balance Sheet Stress

Moderate Deterioration

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Inventory Stress

2024

Cash Conversion Deficit

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20261,45910120393
FY20251,4035485185
FY20241,1325440183
FY20231,087108121152