APLAPOLLOAPL Apollo Tubes Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Iron & Steel Products
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹61,746 Cr
Primary DriverGovernance
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
3 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in governance. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

7.5th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹1,769.2▼1.07%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Stability Adjustment
+3.0 pts
Final Composite Risk3 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 3 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Working Capital Expansion
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Working capital efficiency
  • Operating profit margins
  • Inventory turnover

Active Risk Objects (4)

CriticalHigh
Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 65.9%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2025
APLAPOLLO: Net Profit collapsed by 73.5% from FY2024 Q2 to FY2025 Q2.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Inventory growth (15.2%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (9.2%).

"Slight build-up in inventory detected. Monitor for slowing sales momentum."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)7.187.53✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+63.0+51.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Iron & Steel Products (n=41 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹1,769.2(-1.07%)
1M Divergence-9.4%
1 Week-5.6%
1 Month-7.13%
6 Months-0.21%
1 Year-1.85%
2 Year+18.43%
3 Year+57.43%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in governance remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of structural transparency and audit trails confirm the absence of material structural stress. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

APLAPOLLO • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.48%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score42.5%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing48%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.6931σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#2307 of 2716
Top 84.94% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-5.6%
1M-7.1%
6M-0.2%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹1,936.86
200 DMA₹1,872.07
150 DMA Slope+1.0987%Rising
Relative Strength+5.28%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.1653
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (15).
APLAPOLLOAPL Apollo Tubes Limited
3 Risk
Sector %ile8th
Delta-5
Active Flags4
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

AEROENTERAeroflex Enterprises Limited
5 Risk
Sector %ile15th
Delta-5
Active Flags14
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

BHARATWIREBharat Wire Ropes Limited
19 Risk
Sector %ile58th
Delta+5
Active Flags12
Accel+2
Competitive Position

Stable

BEDMUTHABedmutha Industries Limited
30 Risk
Sector %ile85th
Delta-5
Active Flags28
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Inventory Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Working Capital Expansion

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY202623,1911,2032,103452
FY202520,7867571,213615
FY202418,1947321,1121,125
FY202316,213642690873