Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹564.6(▲3.49%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

ARROWGREENArrow Greentech Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: Arrow Greentech Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Packaging

Risk ClassModerate Deterioration

Market Cap₹602 Cr

Primary DriverCompetitive Position

Flagium AI Risk Score

47 / 100

+27 QoQ

Early Deterioration

Sentinel Insight

Some early signs of pressure are visible. Weakness is detected in competitive position. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

100.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹564.6▲3.49%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Competitive Position

+15.0 pts

Earnings Quality

+10.8 pts

Balance Sheet Stress

+10.8 pts

Growth Sustainability

+10.0 pts

Final Composite Risk47 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 47 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction

🚨 Escalate

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Margin Compression
Inventory Stress
Relative Growth Weakness

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Working capital efficiency
Inventory turnover

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 56.2%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Margin Compression

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Operating margin declined by 6.0 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Industrial Margin Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

ARROWGREEN: Raw material costs consumed an additional 10.3% of revenue YoY.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Inventory growth (24.8%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-25.2%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	7.36	6.71	⚠️ HIGH
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+19.0	+51.0	📈 CRITICAL

Forensic Benchmark Context: Packaging (n=23 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹564.6(+3.49%)

1M Divergence+3.53%

1 Week+20.8%

1 Month+5.8%

6 Months+8.79%

1 Year-14.01%

2 Year-0.48%

3 Year+64.86%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Moderate Stress and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in competitive position suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

ARROWGREEN • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.11%

Trend QualityStabilizing

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score47.5%

Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)

Probability of Advancing11%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score+0.7934σ

Improving momentum strength

Universe Rank#308 of 2716

Top 11.34% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W+20.8%

1M+5.8%

6M+8.8%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹497.45

200 DMA₹518.18

150 DMA Slope-0.9956%Declining

Relative Strength+13.09%Leading

Relative Turnover (RTR)0.8242

ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (15).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
AGIAGI Greenpac Limited	5	5th	+5	8	+1	Competitive PositionStable
AERONEUAeroflex Neu Limited	15	36th	+5	19	+1	Competitive PositionStable
ORICONENTORICONENT	46	95th	+26	23	+1	Balance Sheet StressModerate Deterioration
ARROWGREENArrow Greentech Limited	47	100th	+27	6	+1	Competitive PositionModerate Deterioration