ARVINDArvind Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Garments & Apparels
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹9,060 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
5 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in profitability and earnings quality. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

18.8th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹500.65▲4.49%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+4.8 pts
Final Composite Risk5 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 5 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Industrial Margin Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Debt growth
  • Inventory turnover

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh
Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ1 FY2026
ARVIND: EBITDA margin compressed by 3.0 bps YoY.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Inventory growth (16.2%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (8.4%).

"Slight build-up in inventory detected. Monitor for slowing sales momentum."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 1.8%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ1 FY2025
ARVIND: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 2.34x in FY2025 Q1 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)4.095.02✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+61.0+56.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Garments & Apparels (n=17 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹500.65(+4.49%)
1M Divergence+23.35%
1 Week+1.79%
1 Month+25.62%
6 Months+48.17%
1 Year+44.37%
2 Year+35.85%
3 Year+322.92%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in earnings quality remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of operational margins and profitability metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

ARVIND • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.99%
Trend QualityStrong
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score100%
Readiness LabelHigh (Phase Transition Imminent)
Probability of Advancing99%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+1.4248σ
Strong positive momentum leadership
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#149 of 2716
Top 5.49% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+1.8%
1M+25.6%
6M+48.2%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹358.88
200 DMA₹344.53
150 DMA Slope+6.3417%Rising
Relative Strength+53.65%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)2.4946
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (10).
BANGBang Overseas Limited
0 Risk
Sector %ile0th
Delta-5
Active Flags15
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

ARVINDArvind Limited
5 Risk
Sector %ile19th
Delta-5
Active Flags6
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Stable

GOKEXGokaldas Exports Limited
36 Risk
Sector %ile94th
Delta+5
Active Flags26
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Watch

KITEXKitex Garments Limited
40 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta0
Active Flags29
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Moderate Deterioration

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
6.868th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Inventory Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Inventory Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20269,3604278671,441
FY20258,3943677631,376
FY20247,7793536961,325
FY20238,4274136661,404