Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹531.7(▲4%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

ASALAutomotive Stampings and Assemblies Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: Automotive Stampings and Assemblies Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Auto Components & Equipments

Risk ClassStable

Market Cap₹726 Cr

Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress

Flagium AI Risk Score

19 / 100

-5 QoQ

Improving

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in balance sheet stress. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

72.6th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹531.7▲4%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress

+8.8 pts

Stability Adjustment

+10.0 pts

Final Composite Risk19 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 10 → 19 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

🟢 Improving

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Relative Growth Weakness
Working Capital Expansion

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Inventory turnover
Working capital efficiency

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

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Impact Weight12/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

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Impact Weight15/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2024

Inventory growth (25.3%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-1.9%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 4 Years

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Impact Weight10/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by -20.8%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

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Impact Weight10/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 9 Qtrs

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Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

ASAL: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 2.16x in FY2026 Q2 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Revenue-Debt Divergence

🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalFY2025

ASAL: Revenue fell 11.7% while Debt rose 95.4% in 2025 vs 2024.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	4.42	5.20	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+47.0	+55.5	📈 CRITICAL

Forensic Benchmark Context: Auto Components & Equipments (n=74 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹531.7(+4%)

1M Divergence+1.58%

1 Week+4.89%

1 Month+3.85%

6 Months+5.15%

1 Year+9.86%

2 Year-38.63%

3 Year+66.73%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in balance sheet stress remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

ASAL • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.9%

Trend QualityEarly Base

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score40%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing9%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score+0.3727σ

Improving momentum strength

Universe Rank#536 of 2716

Top 19.73% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W+4.9%

1M+3.9%

6M+5.2%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹477.78

200 DMA₹487.96

150 DMA Slope-1.6391%Declining

Relative Strength+10.64%Leading

Relative Turnover (RTR)0.7097

ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (10.5).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
ASALAutomotive Stampings and Assemblies Limited	19	73th	-5	6	+0	Balance Sheet StressStable
ALICONAlicon Castalloy Limited	20	74th	-5	18	+0	Balance Sheet StressWatch
ARE&MAmara Raja Energy & Mobility Limited	30	89th	-5	19	+0	Earnings QualityWatch
HITECHGEARHITECHGEAR	42	100th	+6	28	+2	Earnings QualityModerate Deterioration