ASIANHOTNRAsian Hotels (North) Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Hotels & Resorts
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹545 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
19 / 100
+5 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in profitability and earnings quality. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

78.6th %ile (Sector)Accel: +2 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹307.45▲0.52%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+9.6 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+8.6 pts
Competitive Position
+7.7 pts
Stability Adjustment
-7.0 pts
Final Composite Risk19 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 11 → 19 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Operating Leverage Stress
  • Low Interest Coverage
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (4)

CriticalHigh
Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 10 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
ASIANHOTNR: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 0.86x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Interest coverage is dangerously low. Even a minor fall in profit could trigger a default."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
ASIANHOTNR: Net Profit collapsed by 82.0% from FY2025 Q4 to FY2026 Q4.

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2025
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (11.0%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)2.672.78✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+47.0+57.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Hotels & Resorts (n=29 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹307.45(+0.52%)
1M Divergence+2.27%
1 Week-0.5%
1 Month+2.65%
6 Months-5.27%
1 Year-16.69%
2 Year+122.71%
3 Year+70.33%
Sector Average (1M)+0.38%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in earnings quality remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of operational margins and profitability metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

ASIANHOTNR • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score15%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.0991σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1191 of 2716
Top 43.85% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-0.5%
1M+2.6%
6M-5.3%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹308.64
200 DMA₹313.79
150 DMA Slope-1.2816%Declining
Relative Strength+1.53%Neutral
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.5983
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (9).
ASIANHOTNRAsian Hotels (North) Limited
19 Risk
Sector %ile79th
Delta+5
Active Flags4
Accel+2
Earnings Quality

Stable

ADVANIHOTRAdvani Hotels & Resorts (India) Limited
20 Risk
Sector %ile82th
Delta+5
Active Flags14
Accel+4
Competitive Position

Watch

AHLEASTAsian Hotels (East) Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile93th
Delta-8
Active Flags24
Accel+0
Governance

Watch

HLVLTDHLVLTD
35 Risk
Sector %ile93th
Delta0
Active Flags14
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
5.252th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
4.242.4th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
4.948.8th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY2026349-102-156334
FY2025321187437550
FY2024300-87721,052
FY2023257-85431,082