ASIANPAINTAsian Paints Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Paints
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹2,20,903 Cr
Primary DriverCompetitive Position
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
22 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in competitive position. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

80.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹2,660.7▲1.08%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Competitive Position
+10.6 pts
Stability Adjustment
+11.0 pts
Final Composite Risk22 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 4 → 22 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Inventory Stress
  • Industrial Margin Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Inventory turnover
  • Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (7)

CriticalHigh
Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Operating margin declined by 4.0 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Operating efficiency is stabilizing. The rate of margin deterioration has slowed."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Inventory growth (13.4%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-5.1%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
ASIANPAINT: EBITDA margin compressed by 2.9 bps YoY.

"Operating efficiency is stabilizing. The rate of margin deterioration has slowed."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2024
ASIANPAINT: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion has normalized in the latest period. Operational cash flow is back in sync."

Relative Growth Weakness
📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 6 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (13.2%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ1 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by -7.0%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)8.178.01⚠️ HIGH
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+44.0+49.5📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Paints (n=6 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹2,660.7(+1.08%)
1M Divergence+6.58%
1 Week+0.52%
1 Month+8.84%
6 Months-10.03%
1 Year+18.65%
2 Year-5.59%
3 Year-15.27%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in competitive position suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

ASIANPAINT • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.73%
Trend QualityDeveloping
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score67.5%
Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)
Probability of Advancing73%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.1114σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#810 of 2716
Top 29.82% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+0.5%
1M+8.8%
6M-10.0%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹2,567.57
200 DMA₹2,541.87
150 DMA Slope+1.1399%Rising
Relative Strength-4.54%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.9500
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (16.5).
AKZOINDIAAkzo Nobel India Limited
18 Risk
Sector %ile60th
Delta-5
Active Flags10
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

ASIANPAINTAsian Paints Limited
22 Risk
Sector %ile80th
Delta-5
Active Flags7
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
329.6th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Margin Compression

2025

Industrial Margin Stress

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Margin Compression

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Margin Compression

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Inventory Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Cash Conversion Deficit

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY202636,3074,3957,0882,293
FY202534,4783,7104,424864
FY202436,1835,5586,1041,107
FY202334,8754,1954,193972