ASIANTILESAsian Granito India Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Ceramics
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹1,591 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
35 / 100
+24 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in profitability and earnings quality. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

100.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹60.98▼0.81%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+15.0 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+11.5 pts
Stability Adjustment
+8.0 pts
Final Composite Risk35 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 15 → 35 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
🚨 Escalate
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Industrial Margin Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Inventory turnover
  • Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (9)

CriticalHigh
Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
ASIANTILES: EBITDA margin compressed by 10.7 bps YoY and Raw material costs consumed an additional 5.7% of revenue YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 9 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
ASIANTILES: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of -3.60x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Interest coverage is dangerously low. Even a minor fall in profit could trigger a default."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
ASIANTILES: Net Profit collapsed by 298.9% from FY2025 Q4 to FY2026 Q4.

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Inventory growth (20.5%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (6.6%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Negative FCF Streak
⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalFY2026
ASIANTILES: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"High capital expenditure and low OCF are draining cash. Debt levels may rise sharply."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2024
ASIANTILES: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion has normalized in the latest period. Operational cash flow is back in sync."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 22.2%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Revenue-Debt Divergence
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2024
ASIANTILES: Revenue fell 2.3% while Debt rose 9.6% in 2024 vs 2023.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)4.177.02✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+31.0+48.5📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Ceramics (n=4 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹60.98(-0.81%)
1M Divergence-8.47%
1 Week-2.32%
1 Month-6.2%
6 Months-3.98%
1 Year+3.39%
2 Year+4.69%
3 Year+29.33%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

ASIANTILES • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.57%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score35%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing57%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.4361σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1953 of 2716
Top 71.91% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-2.3%
1M-6.2%
6M-4.0%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹67.3
200 DMA₹65.42
150 DMA Slope+0.5718%Rising
Relative Strength+1.51%Neutral
Relative Turnover (RTR)2.0351
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (17.5).
KAJARIACERKajaria Ceramics Limited
15 Risk
Sector %ile33th
Delta-5
Active Flags9
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Stable

ASIANTILESAsian Granito India Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+24
Active Flags9
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
4.242.4th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Negative FCF Streak

2025

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Negative FCF Streak

2024

Cash Conversion Deficit

2024

Revenue-Debt Divergence

2024

Negative FCF Streak

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20261,8751994428
FY20251,5682181261
FY20241,543-20-82235
FY20231,579-87-49214