Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹787.9(▲6.73%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

ASTECAstec LifeSciences Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: Astec LifeSciences Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Pesticides & Agrochemicals

Risk ClassWatch

Market Cap₹1,402 Cr

Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress

Flagium AI Risk Score

25 / 100

-5 QoQ

Improving

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in balance sheet stress. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

66.7th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹787.9▲6.73%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress

+19.5 pts

Stability Adjustment

+5.0 pts

Final Composite Risk25 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 12 → 25 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

🟢 Improving

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Working Capital Expansion
Low Interest Coverage

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Inventory turnover
Working capital efficiency

Active Risk Objects (7)

CriticalHigh

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 12 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

ASTEC: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 0.00x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Interest coverage is dangerously low. Even a minor fall in profit could trigger a default."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Inventory growth (17.4%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-25.6%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Negative FCF Streak

⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 3 Years

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Impact Weight6/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalFY2026

ASTEC: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"High capital expenditure and low OCF are draining cash. Debt levels may rise sharply."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ3 FY2024

ASTEC: Net Profit collapsed by 2971.0% from FY2023 Q3 to FY2024 Q3.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Capex Efficiency Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

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Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2025

Aggressive Capex (15.2%) amidst slow revenue growth (-10.0%).

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 25.4%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Revenue-Debt Divergence

🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalFY2025

ASTEC: Revenue fell 16.6% while Debt rose 12.3% in 2025 vs 2024.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	7.42	7.62	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+41.0	+46.5	📈 CRITICAL

Forensic Benchmark Context: Pesticides & Agrochemicals (n=18 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹787.9(+6.73%)

1M Divergence+11.15%

1 Week+5.48%

1 Month+13.42%

6 Months-3.31%

1 Year+13.96%

2 Year-28.1%

3 Year-44.05%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in balance sheet stress suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

ASTEC • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.3%

Trend QualityEarly Base

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score40%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing3%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score+0.5418σ

Improving momentum strength

Universe Rank#428 of 2716

Top 15.76% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W+5.5%

1M+13.4%

6M-3.3%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹672.44

200 DMA₹707.95

150 DMA Slope-0.9831%Declining

Relative Strength+2.18%Leading

Relative Turnover (RTR)0.2599

ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (19.5).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
BHARATRASBharat Rasayan Limited	22	61th	-4	18	+0	Competitive PositionWatch
ASTECAstec LifeSciences Limited	25	67th	-5	7	+0	Balance Sheet StressWatch
DHANUKADhanuka Agritech Limited	36	83th	+1	16	+2	Competitive PositionWatch
BESTAGROBest Agrolife Limited	47	94th	+33	15	+2	Balance Sheet StressModerate Deterioration