ASTRALAstral Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Plastic Products - Industrial
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹44,867 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
12 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in profitability and earnings quality. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

30.8th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹1,526.7▼0.42%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+6.0 pts
Stability Adjustment
+6.0 pts
Final Composite Risk12 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 12 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Industrial Margin Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Inventory turnover
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (5)

CriticalHigh
Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
ASTRAL: EBITDA margin compressed by 2.7 bps YoY and Raw material costs consumed an additional 4.2% of revenue YoY.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ1 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2025
Inventory growth (15.9%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (0.2%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2025
Aggressive Capex (20.5%) amidst slow revenue growth (0.2%).

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)5.647.86✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+54.0+49.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Plastic Products - Industrial (n=14 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹1,526.7(-0.42%)
1M Divergence-2.46%
1 Week-3.3%
1 Month-0.2%
6 Months+5.97%
1 Year+1.41%
2 Year-26.84%
3 Year-17.64%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in earnings quality remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of operational margins and profitability metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

ASTRAL • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.93%
Trend QualityDeveloping
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score72.5%
Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)
Probability of Advancing93%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.3419σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1748 of 2716
Top 64.36% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-3.3%
1M-0.2%
6M+6.0%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹1,522.39
200 DMA₹1,493.57
150 DMA Slope+1.1540%Rising
Relative Strength+11.46%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.0092
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (17).
ASTRALAstral Limited
12 Risk
Sector %ile31th
Delta-5
Active Flags5
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Stable

GRWRHITECHGarware Hi-Tech Films Limited
15 Risk
Sector %ile46th
Delta+5
Active Flags13
Accel+3
Competitive Position

Stable

FINPIPEFinolex Industries Limited
27 Risk
Sector %ile92th
Delta-5
Active Flags18
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Watch

APOLLOPIPEApollo Pipes Limited
40 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+5
Active Flags20
Accel+5
Earnings Quality

Moderate Deterioration

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
660th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Capex Efficiency Stress

2024

Industrial Margin Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20266,6165351,117153
FY20255,874519630144
FY20245,68454682396
FY20235,18547355777