ATHERENERGAther Energy Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

2/3 Wheelers
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹29,649 Cr
Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
15 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in balance sheet stress. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

80.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹960.6▲2.47%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress
+10.6 pts
Stability Adjustment
+4.0 pts
Final Composite Risk15 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 15 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Working Capital Expansion
  • Low Interest Coverage
  • Capex Efficiency Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Working capital efficiency
  • Operating profit margins

Active Risk Objects (3)

CriticalHigh
Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 840.1%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 5 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
ATHERENERG: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of -4.58x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Interest coverage is dangerously low. Even a minor fall in profit could trigger a default."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Aggressive Capex (23.2%) amidst slow revenue growth (-75.4%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)4.093.96⚠️ HIGH
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+51.0+58.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: 2/3 Wheelers (n=6 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹960.6(+2.47%)
1M Divergence+0.49%
1 Week+1.05%
1 Month+2.75%
6 Months+42.9%
1 Year+201.98%
2 Year+198.6%
3 Year+198.6%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in balance sheet stress remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

ATHERENERG • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.98%
Trend QualityStrong
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score90%
Readiness LabelHigh (Phase Transition Imminent)
Probability of Advancing98%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.9623σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#256 of 2716
Top 9.43% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+1.1%
1M+2.8%
6M+42.9%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹747.4
200 DMA₹695.19
150 DMA Slope+5.8089%Rising
Relative Strength+48.39%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.6974
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (8).
BAJAJ-AUTOBajaj Auto Limited
5 Risk
Sector %ile20th
Delta+5
Active Flags7
Accel+1
Growth Sustainability

Stable

ATHERENERGAther Energy Limited
15 Risk
Sector %ile80th
Delta-5
Active Flags3
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Stable

OLAELECOla Electric Mobility Limited
50 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+8
Active Flags23
Accel+3
Balance Sheet Stress

Moderate Deterioration

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
4.747.2th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Capex Efficiency Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20263,823-51732513
FY20252,305-812-721450