ATULAtul Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Specialty Chemicals
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹19,214 Cr
Primary DriverGovernance
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
0 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in governance. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

0.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹6,641▼0.67%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

No active forensic penalties contributing.
Final Composite Risk0 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has declined from 4 → 0 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Working Capital Expansion
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Working capital efficiency
  • Inventory turnover

Active Risk Objects (5)

CriticalHigh
Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by -0.8%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2025
Inventory growth (29.6%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (17.1%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2024
Aggressive Capex (24.8%) amidst slow revenue growth (-20.0%).

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Revenue-Debt Divergence
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2024
ATUL: Revenue fell 13.7% while Debt rose 393.5% in 2024 vs 2023.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)3.6710.68✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+66.0+46.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Specialty Chemicals (n=51 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹6,641(-0.67%)
1M Divergence-4.86%
1 Week-5.37%
1 Month-2.59%
6 Months+15.38%
1 Year-5.79%
2 Year+18.89%
3 Year-0.74%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in governance remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of structural transparency and audit trails confirm the absence of material structural stress. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

ATUL • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.95%
Trend QualityDeveloping
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score65%
Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)
Probability of Advancing95%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.1190σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1236 of 2716
Top 45.51% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-5.4%
1M-2.6%
6M+15.4%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹6,290.79
200 DMA₹6,282.29
150 DMA Slope+2.0052%Rising
Relative Strength+20.86%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.4120
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (20).
ATULAtul Limited
0 Risk
Sector %ile0th
Delta-5
Active Flags5
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

EXCELINDUSEXCELINDUS
5 Risk
Sector %ile8th
Delta+5
Active Flags10
Accel+1
Balance Sheet Stress

Stable

AARTISURFAarti Surfactants Limited
15 Risk
Sector %ile32th
Delta+2
Active Flags17
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Stable

AARTIINDAarti Industries Limited
20 Risk
Sector %ile46th
Delta-5
Active Flags24
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Inventory Stress

2024

Capex Efficiency Stress

2024

Revenue-Debt Divergence

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20266,4766891,023180
FY20255,692499603198
FY20244,784324667232
FY20235,54250770747