AVALONAvalon Technologies Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Other Electrical Equipment
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹6,578 Cr
Primary DriverGovernance
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
0 / 100
0 QoQ
Stable
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure has stabilized in governance. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. No major change in risk trend.

0.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹1,511.9▲4.14%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

No active forensic penalties contributing.
Final Composite Risk0 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has declined from 0 → 0 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Working Capital Expansion
  • Low Interest Coverage
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Working capital efficiency
  • Operating cash flow
  • Operating profit margins

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh
Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2024
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 281.6%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
AVALON: OCF below Net Profit in 3/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ1 FY2025
AVALON: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 0.52x in FY2025 Q1 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ1 FY2025
AVALON: Net Profit collapsed by 132.6% from FY2024 Q1 to FY2025 Q1.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Negative FCF Streak
⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2025
AVALON: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"Free cash flow pressure is easing as capital intensity or working capital stress recedes."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2024
Inventory growth (1.9%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-76.7%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)4.555.89✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+66.0+54.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Other Electrical Equipment (n=23 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹1,511.9(+4.14%)
1M Divergence+40.74%
1 Week+3.46%
1 Month+43%
6 Months+68.82%
1 Year+77.86%
2 Year+210.64%
3 Year+241.63%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in governance remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of structural transparency and audit trails confirm the absence of material structural stress. The current structural trajectory supports a stable risk outlook.

AVALON • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.99%
Trend QualityStrong
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score100%
Readiness LabelHigh (Phase Transition Imminent)
Probability of Advancing99%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+1.9924σ
Strong positive momentum leadership
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#95 of 2716
Top 3.50% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+3.5%
1M+43.0%
6M+68.8%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹1,027.82
200 DMA₹1,017.81
150 DMA Slope+3.4052%Rising
Relative Strength+74.31%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)2.4588
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (12).
AVALONAvalon Technologies Limited
0 Risk
Sector %ile0th
Delta0
Active Flags6
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

ADVAITAdvait Energy Transitions Limited
0 Risk
Sector %ile0th
Delta0
Active Flags0
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

GENUSPOWERGENUSPOWER
12 Risk
Sector %ile50th
Delta0
Active Flags11
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Stable

EMMVEEEMMVEE
14 Risk
Sector %ile55th
Delta-2
Active Flags3
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Stable

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Cash Conversion Deficit

2025

Cash Conversion Deficit

2025

Negative FCF Streak

2024

Inventory Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20261,63211357183
FY20251,1156325142
FY20248822817164
FY202395953-13306