AVANTELAvantel Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Aerospace & Defense
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹3,457 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
30 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in profitability and earnings quality. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

60.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹176.14▲1.57%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+15.0 pts
Growth Sustainability
+10.0 pts
Stability Adjustment
+5.0 pts
Final Composite Risk30 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 30 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Inventory Stress
  • Working Capital Expansion
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Working capital efficiency
  • Operating profit margins
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (7)

CriticalHigh
Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 55.3%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Aggressive Capex (51.5%) amidst slow revenue growth (-27.7%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Operating margin declined by 5.8 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
AVANTEL: Net Profit collapsed by 86.3% from FY2025 Q3 to FY2026 Q3.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Inventory growth (54.4%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (30.5%).

"Slight build-up in inventory detected. Monitor for slowing sales momentum."

Revenue-Debt Divergence
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
AVANTEL: Revenue fell 10.2% while Debt rose 62.9% in 2026 vs 2025.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)5.457.38✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+36.0+46.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Aerospace & Defense (n=21 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹176.14(+1.57%)
1M Divergence+16.15%
1 Week-0.39%
1 Month+18.42%
6 Months+16.51%
1 Year+16.46%
2 Year-13.7%
3 Year-13.7%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

AVANTEL • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.13%
Trend QualityStabilizing
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score47.5%
Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)
Probability of Advancing13%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.7616σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#321 of 2716
Top 11.82% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-0.4%
1M+18.4%
6M+16.5%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹152.31
200 DMA₹156.75
150 DMA Slope-2.4408%Declining
Relative Strength+22.00%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.0647
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (20).
APOLLOApollo Micro Systems Limited
0 Risk
Sector %ile0th
Delta0
Active Flags10
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

AEQUSAequs Limited
20 Risk
Sector %ile50th
Delta+15
Active Flags3
Accel+2
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

AVANTELAvantel Limited
30 Risk
Sector %ile60th
Delta-5
Active Flags7
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Watch

DCXINDIADCXINDIA
53 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+18
Active Flags29
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Moderate Deterioration

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Capex Efficiency Stress

2026

Revenue-Debt Divergence

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Working Capital Expansion

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY2026225151034
FY2025251565021