Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹190.65(▲0%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

AWLAWL Agri Business Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: AWL Agri Business Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Edible Oil

Risk ClassStable

Market Cap₹23,509 Cr

Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress

Flagium AI Risk Score

8 / 100

-2 QoQ

Improving

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile is stable with manageable leverage. Pressure is receding in balance sheet stress. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Minor improvements are visible in the risk trend.

0.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹190.65▲0%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress

+8.0 pts

Final Composite Risk8 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 4 → 8 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

⚠ Watch

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Working Capital Expansion
Operating Leverage Stress

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Working capital efficiency
Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2024

AWL: Net Profit collapsed by 368.1% from FY2023 Q2 to FY2024 Q2.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years

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Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by -8.1%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Inventory growth (36.6%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (20.3%).

"Slight build-up in inventory detected. Monitor for slowing sales momentum."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 4 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

AWL: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 2.32x in FY2025 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Revenue-Debt Divergence

🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalFY2024

AWL: Revenue fell 11.8% while Debt rose 8.5% in 2024 vs 2023.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	6.5	9.43	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+58.0	+57.0	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Edible Oil (n=5 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹190.65(+0%)

1M Divergence-5.18%

1 Week-1.25%

1 Month-2.91%

6 Months-23.51%

1 Year-29.44%

2 Year-46.41%

3 Year-56.43%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in balance sheet stress remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. The current structural trajectory supports a stable risk outlook.

AWL • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score7.5%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing0%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.4784σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#2025 of 2716

Top 74.56% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-1.3%

1M-2.9%

6M-23.5%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹217.6

200 DMA₹228.22

150 DMA Slope-3.8225%Declining

Relative Strength-18.02%Lagging

Relative Turnover (RTR)0.9561

ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (9).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
AWLAWL Agri Business Limited	8	0th	-2	6	+0	Balance Sheet StressStable
MARICOMarico Limited	9	50th	-5	12	+0	Earnings QualityStable
GOKULAGROGOKULAGRO	25	75th	-5	14	+0	Earnings QualityWatch
PATANJALIPatanjali Foods Limited	25	75th	-5	15	+0	Earnings QualityWatch