Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹2,066.1(▲4.33%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

AZADAzad Engineering Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: Azad Engineering Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Heavy Electrical Equipment

Risk ClassStable

Market Cap₹9,485 Cr

Primary DriverGrowth Sustainability

Flagium AI Risk Score

5 / 100

+5 QoQ

Early Deterioration

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in growth sustainability. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

20.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹2,066.1▲4.33%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Growth Sustainability

+10.0 pts

Balance Sheet Stress

+8.0 pts

Stability Adjustment

-13.0 pts

Final Composite Risk5 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 5 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction

⚠ Watch

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Industrial Margin Stress
Working Capital Expansion

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Inventory turnover
Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (7)

CriticalHigh

Capex Efficiency Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2025

Aggressive Capex (113.4%) amidst slow revenue growth (-75.8%).

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

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Impact Weight15/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Inventory growth (73.9%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (36.7%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Industrial Margin Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ1 FY2026

AZAD: Raw material costs consumed an additional 6.1% of revenue YoY.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalFY2026

AZAD: OCF below Net Profit in 3/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Negative FCF Streak

⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalFY2026

AZAD: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"High capital expenditure and low OCF are draining cash. Debt levels may rise sharply."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 2.0%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ3 FY2024

AZAD: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 2.37x in FY2024 Q3 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	5.36	6.30	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+61.0	+55.0	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Heavy Electrical Equipment (n=31 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹2,066.1(+4.33%)

1M Divergence-6.83%

1 Week-2.4%

1 Month-4.56%

6 Months+26.37%

1 Year+16.51%

2 Year+38.15%

3 Year+198.55%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in growth sustainability remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

AZAD • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.98%

Trend QualityStrong

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score90%

Readiness LabelHigh (Phase Transition Imminent)

Probability of Advancing98%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score+0.5937σ

Improving momentum strength

Universe Rank#399 of 2716

Top 14.69% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-2.4%

1M-4.6%

6M+26.4%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹1,707.72

200 DMA₹1,682.21

150 DMA Slope+3.6348%Rising

Relative Strength+31.86%Leading

Relative Turnover (RTR)2.5839

ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (11).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
AARTECHAartech Solonics Limited	4	17th	-5	4	+0	GovernanceStable
AZADAzad Engineering Limited	5	20th	+5	7	+1	Growth SustainabilityStable
BAJELBajel Projects Limited	25	77th	-5	22	+0	Balance Sheet StressWatch
ELECONElecon Engineering Company Limited	35	90th	+30	6	+2	Earnings QualityWatch