Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹5(▲0.4%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

BAGFILMSB.A.G Films and Media Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: B.A.G Films and Media Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

TV Broadcasting & Software Production

Risk ClassWatch

Market Cap₹100 Cr

Primary DriverEarnings Quality

Flagium AI Risk Score

35 / 100

+21 QoQ

Deteriorating

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in profitability and earnings quality. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

60.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +4 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹5▲0.4%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality

+25.0 pts

Stability Adjustment

+10.0 pts

Final Composite Risk35 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 9 → 35 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

🚨 Escalate

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Margin Compression
Relative Growth Weakness
Operating Leverage Stress

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Debt growth
Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh

Margin Compression

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Operating margin declined by 9.7 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 9 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

BAGFILMS: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.14x in FY2026 Q3 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 5 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

BAGFILMS: Net Profit collapsed by 63.9% from FY2025 Q4 to FY2026 Q4.

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Revenue growth has slowed, indicating weakening demand environment.

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalFY2026

BAGFILMS: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	6	8.37	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+31.0	+32.0	📈 CRITICAL

Forensic Benchmark Context: TV Broadcasting & Software Production (n=11 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹5(+0.4%)

1M Divergence-9.19%

1 Week-0.79%

1 Month-3.29%

6 Months-23.55%

1 Year-32.52%

2 Year-40.12%

3 Year+20.48%

Sector Average (1M)+5.9%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

BAGFILMS • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score0%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing0%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.3827σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#1845 of 2716

Top 67.93% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-0.8%

1M-3.3%

6M-23.6%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹5.68

200 DMA₹5.92

150 DMA Slope-4.2408%Declining

Relative Strength-18.06%Lagging

Relative Turnover (RTR)0.5381

ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (34).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
AQYLONAqylon Nexus Limited	10	10th	+5	8	+1	Earnings QualityStable
BAGFILMSB.A.G Films and Media Limited	35	60th	+21	6	+4	Earnings QualityWatch
DENDEN	35	60th	+15	12	+5	Earnings QualityWatch