Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹312.9(▼0.76%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

BAJAJELECBajaj Electricals Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: Bajaj Electricals Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Household Appliances

Risk ClassModerate Deterioration

Market Cap₹4,156 Cr

Primary DriverEarnings Quality

Flagium AI Risk Score

41 / 100

0 QoQ

Stable

Sentinel Insight

Some early signs of pressure are visible. Pressure has stabilized in profitability and earnings quality. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. No major change in risk trend.

84.2th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹312.9▼0.76%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality

+15.0 pts

Competitive Position

+15.0 pts

Balance Sheet Stress

+10.6 pts

Final Composite Risk41 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 41 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction

⚠ Watch

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Margin Compression
Industrial Margin Stress
Relative Growth Weakness

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Debt growth
Working capital efficiency

Active Risk Objects (7)

CriticalHigh

Industrial Margin Stress

📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 5 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

BAJAJELEC: EBITDA margin compressed by 4.2 bps YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Margin Compression

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

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Impact Weight15/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Operating margin declined by 3.6 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 5 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

BAJAJELEC: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of -2.95x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Interest coverage is dangerously low. Even a minor fall in profit could trigger a default."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 5 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

BAJAJELEC: Net Profit collapsed by 214.4% from FY2025 Q4 to FY2026 Q4.

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 4.5%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	7.36	9.85	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+25.0	+41.5	📈 CRITICAL

Forensic Benchmark Context: Household Appliances (n=20 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹312.9(-0.76%)

1M Divergence-23.27%

1 Week-6.78%

1 Month-21%

6 Months-34.7%

1 Year-53.27%

2 Year-65.79%

3 Year-70.84%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Moderate Stress and currently consolidating. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Continued monitoring is necessary as risk levels remain above institutional safety parameters.

BAJAJELEC • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score0%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing0%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-1.1689σ

Significant momentum lag

Universe Rank#2592 of 2716

Top 95.43% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-6.8%

1M-21.0%

6M-34.7%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹420.27

200 DMA₹457.15

150 DMA Slope-5.5324%Declining

Relative Strength-29.21%Lagging

Relative Turnover (RTR)0.5095

ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (24.5).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
BLUESTARCOBlue Star Limited	10	21th	0	9	+0	Competitive PositionStable
AMBERAmber Enterprises India Limited	29	53th	-5	18	+0	GovernanceWatch
BOSCH-HCILBOSCH HOME COMFORT INDIA LIMITED	32	58th	-8	22	+0	Earnings QualityWatch
BAJAJELECBajaj Electricals Limited	41	84th	0	7	+0	Earnings QualityModerate Deterioration