BAJAJHLDNGBajaj Holdings & Investment Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Holding Company
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹1,00,387 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
9 / 100
0 QoQ
Stable
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure has stabilized in profitability and earnings quality. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. No major change in risk trend.

45.5th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹10,240▼0.29%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+8.8 pts
Final Composite Risk9 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 9 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • NIM Compression
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins

Active Risk Objects (1)

CriticalHigh
NIM Compression
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 6 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
BAJAJHLDNG: NIM compressed by 47 bps YoY (to 0.16%).

"Early signs of margin compression detected. Core interest income is being squeezed."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)2.643.49✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+57.0+57.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Holding Company (n=12 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹10,240(-0.29%)
1M Divergence+0.47%
1 Week-4.34%
1 Month-0.26%
6 Months-7.9%
1 Year-23.15%
2 Year+30.76%
3 Year+51.34%
Sector Average (1M)-0.73%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in earnings quality remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of operational margins and profitability metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. The current structural trajectory supports a stable risk outlook.

BAJAJHLDNG • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score0%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.3253σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1708 of 2716
Top 62.89% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-4.3%
1M-0.3%
6M-7.9%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹10,846.66
200 DMA₹11,366.86
150 DMA Slope-2.3704%Declining
Relative Strength-2.41%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.5982
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (9).
BAJAJHLDNGBajaj Holdings & Investment Limited
9 Risk
Sector %ile45th
Delta0
Active Flags1
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Stable

AFSLAbans Financial Services Limited
13 Risk
Sector %ile82th
Delta-5
Active Flags11
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Stable

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
5.656th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

NIM Compression

2026

NIM Compression

2026

NIM Compression

2025

NIM Compression

2025

NIM Compression

2024

NIM Compression

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20261,1249,7892,5640
FY20258316,626-1,9570
FY20241,7137,3654360
FY20235274,9461,7280