BAJELBajel Projects Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Heavy Electrical Equipment
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹1,767 Cr
Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
25 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in balance sheet stress. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

76.7th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹194.01▲0.64%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress
+16.5 pts
Stability Adjustment
+9.0 pts
Final Composite Risk25 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 11 → 25 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Industrial Margin Stress
  • Working Capital Expansion
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Inventory turnover
  • Working capital efficiency

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh
Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
BAJEL: Net Profit collapsed by 128.9% from FY2025 Q3 to FY2026 Q3.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Inventory growth (8.1%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-7.0%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
BAJEL: EBITDA margin compressed by 1.8 bps YoY and Raw material costs consumed an additional 61.4% of revenue YoY.

"Operating efficiency is stabilizing. The rate of margin deterioration has slowed."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 34.1%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 11 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
BAJEL: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 2.30x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Earnings buffer for interest payments is narrowing. Monitor for margin pressure."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ1 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)8.836.30⚠️ HIGH
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+41.0+55.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Heavy Electrical Equipment (n=31 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹194.01(+0.64%)
1M Divergence+0.75%
1 Week+6.11%
1 Month+3.02%
6 Months+12.61%
1 Year-10.47%
2 Year-21.47%
3 Year+46.09%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in balance sheet stress suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

BAJEL • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.17%
Trend QualityStabilizing
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score55%
Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)
Probability of Advancing17%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.5823σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#408 of 2716
Top 15.02% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+6.1%
1M+3.0%
6M+12.6%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹170.94
200 DMA₹179.71
150 DMA Slope-1.5843%Declining
Relative Strength+18.10%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.4977
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (11).
ABBABB India Limited
15 Risk
Sector %ile63th
Delta0
Active Flags12
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Stable

BAJELBajel Projects Limited
25 Risk
Sector %ile77th
Delta-5
Active Flags6
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

INOXWINDInox Wind Limited
38 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+32
Active Flags19
Accel+3
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
1.817.6th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Industrial Margin Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Inventory Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20262,8192021350
FY20252,6291569121
FY20241,1954195-