BALKRISHNABalkrishna Paper Mills Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Paper & Paper Products
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹53 Cr
Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
14 / 100
+5 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in balance sheet stress. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

0.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
18.210.11%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress
+8.6 pts
Earnings Quality
+7.2 pts
Stability Adjustment
-2.0 pts
Final Composite Risk14 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 914 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Low Interest Coverage
  • Profit Collapse
  • Negative FCF Streak
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins

Active Risk Objects (3)

CriticalHigh
Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 11 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
BALKRISHNA: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of -0.11x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Interest coverage is dangerously low. Even a minor fall in profit could trigger a default."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
BALKRISHNA: Net Profit collapsed by 139.6% from FY2025 Q4 to FY2026 Q4.

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Negative FCF Streak
⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalFY2026
BALKRISHNA: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"High capital expenditure and low OCF are draining cash. Debt levels may rise sharply."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)2.0813.49✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+52.0+37.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Paper & Paper Products (n=13 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
18.21(-0.11%)
1M Divergence+3.48%
1 Week-3.29%
1 Month+1.11%
6 Months-12.2%
1 Year-15.03%
2 Year-27.45%
3 Year+2.07%
Sector Average (1M)-2.37%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in balance sheet stress remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

BALKRISHNA • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score0%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.0349σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1055 of 2716
Top 38.84% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-3.3%
1M+1.1%
6M-12.2%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA18.41
200 DMA19.35
150 DMA Slope-3.4640%Declining
Relative Strength-7.27%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.2955
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (29).

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
5.252th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
4.242.4th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Negative FCF Streak

2025

Negative FCF Streak

2024

Negative FCF Streak

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20265-7-2166
FY202528-4160
FY20246-71-8215
FY2023109-52-20229