BANARISUGBannari Amman Sugars Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Sugar
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹4,517 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
21 / 100
+14 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in profitability and earnings quality. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

46.1th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹3,600.4▼0.11%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+13.4 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+8.0 pts
Final Composite Risk21 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 21 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🚨 Escalate
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Industrial Margin Stress
  • Working Capital Expansion
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Inventory turnover
  • Working capital efficiency

Active Risk Objects (4)

CriticalHigh
Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
BANARISUG: EBITDA margin compressed by 4.0 bps YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 3 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2025
BANARISUG: Net Profit collapsed by 57.7% from FY2024 Q3 to FY2025 Q3.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2024
Inventory growth (3.8%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-35.7%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by -19.7%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)711.92✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+45.0+44.5✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Sugar (n=14 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹3,600.4(-0.11%)
1M Divergence-5.62%
1 Week+0.01%
1 Month-3.36%
6 Months-0.01%
1 Year-10.82%
2 Year+52.58%
3 Year+29.04%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

BANARISUG • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.9%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score35%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing9%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.2596σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1564 of 2716
Top 57.58% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+0.0%
1M-3.4%
6M-0.0%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹3,608.6
200 DMA₹3,612.91
150 DMA Slope+0.4453%Rising
Relative Strength+5.40%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.5585
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (21.5).
BANARISUGBannari Amman Sugars Limited
21 Risk
Sector %ile46th
Delta+14
Active Flags4
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Watch

AVADHSUGARAvadh Sugar & Energy Limited
29 Risk
Sector %ile77th
Delta-5
Active Flags24
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Watch

DCMSRINDDCMSRIND
35 Risk
Sector %ile85th
Delta0
Active Flags28
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Watch

RENUKAShree Renuka Sugars Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile85th
Delta+1
Active Flags28
Accel+1
Competitive Position

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
1.110.9th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
660th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Inventory Stress

2024

Industrial Margin Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20261,9601485149
FY20251,819105430150
FY20242,227152274486
FY20232,565143502581