Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹3,348.5(▲0.55%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

BASFBASF India Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: BASF India Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Specialty Chemicals

Risk ClassWatch

Market Cap₹15,622 Cr

Primary DriverCompetitive Position

Flagium AI Risk Score

21 / 100

-5 QoQ

Improving

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in competitive position. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

52.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹3,348.5▲0.55%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Competitive Position

+15.0 pts

Stability Adjustment

+6.0 pts

Final Composite Risk21 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 21 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction

🟢 Improving

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Margin Compression
Industrial Margin Stress

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Inventory turnover
Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (8)

CriticalHigh

Industrial Margin Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

BASF: EBITDA margin compressed by 5.9 bps YoY.

"Operating efficiency is stabilizing. The rate of margin deterioration has slowed."

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Inventory growth (13.6%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-4.6%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Margin Compression

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ1 FY2026

Operating margin declined by 2.3 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalFY2026

BASF: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

BASF: Net Profit collapsed by 83.3% from FY2024 Q4 to FY2025 Q4.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 5.3%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	5.55	10.68	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+45.0	+46.0	📈 CRITICAL

Forensic Benchmark Context: Specialty Chemicals (n=51 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹3,348.5(+0.55%)

1M Divergence-10.32%

1 Week-4.09%

1 Month-8.06%

6 Months-17.6%

1 Year-34.96%

2 Year-21.1%

3 Year+33%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in competitive position suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

BASF • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score0%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing0%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.6799σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#2294 of 2716

Top 84.46% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-4.1%

1M-8.1%

6M-17.6%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹3,792.58

200 DMA₹3,991.8

150 DMA Slope-3.0471%Declining

Relative Strength-12.11%Lagging

Relative Turnover (RTR)1.5563

ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (20).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
AARTIINDAarti Industries Limited	20	46th	-5	24	+0	Balance Sheet StressWatch
BASFBASF India Limited	21	52th	-5	8	+0	Competitive PositionWatch
ARVEEArvee Laboratories (India) Limited	34	82th	-8	28	+0	Earnings QualityWatch
ACIArchean Chemical Industries Limited	35	84th	+20	22	+1	Earnings QualityWatch