BBOXBlack Box Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

IT Enabled Services
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹8,729 Cr
Primary DriverCompetitive Position
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
22 / 100
+4 QoQ
Deteriorating
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in competitive position. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

80.6th %ile (Sector)Accel: +5 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹1,031.8▼1.41%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Competitive Position
+14.1 pts
Earnings Quality
+8.0 pts
Final Composite Risk22 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 11 → 22 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
🚨 Escalate
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Operating Leverage Stress
  • Low Interest Coverage
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating cash flow
  • Operating profit margins
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (5)

CriticalHigh
Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalFY2026
BBOX: OCF below Net Profit in 3/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (13.6%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 8 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
BBOX: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 2.43x in FY2026 Q3 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Revenue-Debt Divergence
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2025
BBOX: Revenue fell 5.2% while Debt rose 64.5% in 2025 vs 2024.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)2.754.03✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+44.0+60.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: IT Enabled Services (n=37 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹1,031.8(-1.41%)
1M Divergence+55.42%
1 Week+5.47%
1 Month+61.32%
6 Months+93.29%
1 Year+88.03%
2 Year+321.56%
3 Year+662.6%
Sector Average (1M)+5.9%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in competitive position suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Continued monitoring is necessary as risk levels remain above institutional safety parameters.

BBOX • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.99%
Trend QualityStrong
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score100%
Readiness LabelHigh (Phase Transition Imminent)
Probability of Advancing99%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+3.5250σ
Strong positive momentum leadership
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#21 of 2716
Top 0.77% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+5.5%
1M+61.3%
6M+93.3%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹577.66
200 DMA₹558.05
150 DMA Slope+8.8669%Rising
Relative Strength+98.78%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)3.5943
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (6).
ADROITINFOAdroit Infotech Limited
15 Risk
Sector %ile69th
Delta-5
Active Flags10
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

BBOXBlack Box Limited
22 Risk
Sector %ile81th
Delta+4
Active Flags5
Accel+5
Competitive Position

Watch

E2EE2E
35 Risk
Sector %ile94th
Delta0
Active Flags14
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Watch

GENESYSGENESYS
46 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+11
Active Flags19
Accel+2
Earnings Quality

Moderate Deterioration

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
6.868th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
329.6th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Cash Conversion Deficit

2025

Revenue-Debt Divergence

2025

Cash Conversion Deficit

2024

Cash Conversion Deficit

2024

Revenue-Debt Divergence

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20266,32821884827
FY20255,972205-88654
FY20246,301138134397
FY20236,3092418352