BELRISEBelrise Industries Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Auto Components & Equipments
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹17,307 Cr
Primary DriverGrowth Sustainability
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
24 / 100
+5 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in growth sustainability. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

78.1th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹217.89▲1.33%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Growth Sustainability
+10.0 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+8.0 pts
Earnings Quality
+5.8 pts
Final Composite Risk24 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 24 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Industrial Margin Stress
  • Working Capital Expansion
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Working capital efficiency
  • Inventory turnover
  • Operating profit margins

Active Risk Objects (3)

CriticalHigh
Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by -2.1%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Inventory growth (19.4%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (12.6%).

"Slight build-up in inventory detected. Monitor for slowing sales momentum."

Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
BELRISE: Raw material costs consumed an additional 4.8% of revenue YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)45.20✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+42.0+55.5📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Auto Components & Equipments (n=74 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹217.89(+1.33%)
1M Divergence+0.16%
1 Week+0.28%
1 Month+2.43%
6 Months+33.45%
1 Year+136.04%
2 Year+124.54%
3 Year+124.54%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in growth sustainability suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

BELRISE • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.94%
Trend QualityStrong
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score75%
Readiness LabelHigh (Phase Transition Imminent)
Probability of Advancing94%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.4883σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#455 of 2716
Top 16.75% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+0.3%
1M+2.4%
6M+33.5%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹182.76
200 DMA₹174.08
150 DMA Slope+4.4303%Rising
Relative Strength+38.94%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.6551
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (10.5).
ALICONAlicon Castalloy Limited
20 Risk
Sector %ile74th
Delta-5
Active Flags18
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

BELRISEBelrise Industries Limited
24 Risk
Sector %ile78th
Delta+5
Active Flags3
Accel+1
Growth Sustainability

Watch

HITECHGEARHITECHGEAR
42 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+6
Active Flags28
Accel+2
Earnings Quality

Moderate Deterioration

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
6.261.6th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
660th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Working Capital Expansion

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20269,6194978761,439
FY20258,3523557042,900