Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹1,729.3(▲0.53%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

BEMLBEML Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: BEML Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Construction Vehicles

Risk ClassWatch

Market Cap₹13,776 Cr

Primary DriverEarnings Quality

Flagium AI Risk Score

35 / 100

0 QoQ

Stable

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile is stable with manageable leverage. Pressure has stabilized in project execution and margins. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. No major change in risk trend.

66.7th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹1,729.3▲0.53%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality

+15.0 pts

Balance Sheet Stress

+8.0 pts

Stability Adjustment

+12.0 pts

Final Composite Risk35 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 11 → 35 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction

⚠ Watch

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Margin Compression
Inventory Stress
Industrial Margin Stress

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Debt growth
Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (10)

CriticalHigh

Industrial Margin Stress

📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 5 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

BEML: EBITDA margin compressed by 10.1 bps YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Margin Compression

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Operating margin declined by 10.3 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

BEML: Net Profit collapsed by 191.7% from FY2025 Q3 to FY2026 Q3.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 4 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

BEML: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of -1.19x in FY2026 Q3 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalFY2026

BEML: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2025

Inventory growth (24.2%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-5.3%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 23.1%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Revenue-Debt Divergence

🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalFY2025

BEML: Revenue fell 1.2% while Debt rose 277.5% in 2025 vs 2024.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	6.18	11.37	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+31.0	+35.0	📈 CRITICAL

Forensic Benchmark Context: Construction Vehicles (n=4 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹1,729.3(+0.53%)

1M Divergence-6.52%

1 Week-6.26%

1 Month-4.25%

6 Months-1.9%

1 Year-18.11%

2 Year-20.47%

3 Year+134.69%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently consolidating. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Continued monitoring is necessary as risk levels remain above institutional safety parameters.

BEML • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.1%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score22.5%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing1%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.1793σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#1362 of 2716

Top 50.15% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-6.3%

1M-4.3%

6M-1.9%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹1,777.27

200 DMA₹1,855.49

150 DMA Slope-2.4141%Declining

Relative Strength+3.59%Leading

Relative Turnover (RTR)0.8385

ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (31).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
ACEAction Construction Equipment Limited	14	0th	+4	6	+3	Competitive PositionStable
AJAXENGGAjax Engineering Limited	27	33th	-5	8	+0	Earnings QualityWatch
BEMLBEML Limited	35	67th	0	10	+0	Earnings QualityWatch
TILTIL	49	100th	+8	34	+4	Balance Sheet StressModerate Deterioration