BFUTILITIEBF Utilities Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Road Assets - Toll Annuity Hybrid-Annuity
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹1,842 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
14 / 100
-1 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in profitability and earnings quality. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Minor improvements are visible in the risk trend.

0.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹599.15▲4.99%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+7.2 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+7.2 pts
Final Composite Risk14 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 14 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Low Interest Coverage
  • Profit Collapse
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins

Active Risk Objects (3)

CriticalHigh
Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (6.5%).

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
BFUTILITIE: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of -6701.20x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Interest coverage is dangerously low. Even a minor fall in profit could trigger a default."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
BFUTILITIE: Net Profit collapsed by 104.4% from FY2025 Q4 to FY2026 Q4.

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)5.0913.46✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+52.0+45.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Road Assets - Toll Annuity Hybrid-Annuity (n=2 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹599.15(+4.99%)
1M Divergence+9.57%
1 Week+5.48%
1 Month+7.2%
6 Months-2.08%
1 Year-20.68%
2 Year-34.16%
3 Year+61.78%
Sector Average (1M)-2.37%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in earnings quality remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of operational margins and profitability metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. The current structural trajectory supports a stable risk outlook.

BFUTILITIE • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.4%
Trend QualityEarly Base
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score40%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing4%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.6012σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#395 of 2716
Top 14.54% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+5.5%
1M+7.2%
6M-2.1%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹569.22
200 DMA₹625.04
150 DMA Slope-5.4399%Declining
Relative Strength+3.41%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.3825
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (21).
BFUTILITIEBF Utilities Limited
14 Risk
Sector %ile0th
Delta-1
Active Flags3
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Stable

ATLANTAAATLANTAA LIMITED
28 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta-5
Active Flags18
Accel+0
Governance

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
5.252th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
5.252th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2025

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Relative Growth Weakness

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY2026332-11-
FY2025862338540932
FY20249893045831,297
FY20237762574361,480