Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹330.2(▲0%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

BGRENERGYBGR Energy Systems Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: BGR Energy Systems Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Civil Construction

Risk ClassWatch

Market Cap₹2,251 Cr

Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress

Flagium AI Risk Score

20 / 100

-5 QoQ

Improving

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile is stable with manageable leverage. Pressure is receding in balance sheet stress. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

65.4th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹330.2▲0%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress

+8.6 pts

Stability Adjustment

+11.0 pts

Final Composite Risk20 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 11 → 20 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

🟢 Improving

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Margin Compression
Operating Leverage Stress
Low Interest Coverage

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (5)

CriticalHigh

Margin Compression

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ1 FY2026

Operating margin declined by 176.5 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 12 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

BGRENERGY: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of -0.28x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Interest coverage is dangerously low. Even a minor fall in profit could trigger a default."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ1 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

BGRENERGY: Net Profit collapsed by 356.8% from FY2024 Q4 to FY2025 Q4.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Revenue-Debt Divergence

🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalFY2026

BGRENERGY: Revenue fell 35.5% while Debt rose 30.5% in 2026 vs 2025.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	4.08	4.13	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+46.0	+56.0	📈 CRITICAL

Forensic Benchmark Context: Civil Construction (n=53 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹330.2(+0%)

1M Divergence+16.7%

1 Week+4.99%

1 Month+17.08%

6 Months-19.64%

1 Year+197.48%

2 Year+734.89%

3 Year+539.3%

Sector Average (1M)+0.38%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in balance sheet stress suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

BGRENERGY • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.11%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score30%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing11%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score+0.0038σ

Improving momentum strength

Universe Rank#988 of 2716

Top 36.38% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W+5.0%

1M+17.1%

6M-19.6%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹340.98

200 DMA₹307.67

150 DMA Slope+0.3434%Rising

Relative Strength-15.54%Lagging

Relative Turnover (RTR)0.5265

ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (10).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
AKASHAkash Infra-Projects Limited	11	52th	+5	21	+1	Earnings QualityStable
BGRENERGYBGR Energy Systems Limited	20	65th	-5	5	+0	Balance Sheet StressWatch
AFCONSAfcons Infrastructure Limited	35	90th	+25	12	+2	Earnings QualityWatch
BRNLBharat Road Network Limited	44	100th	+30	16	+3	Earnings QualityModerate Deterioration