BHARATCOALBharat Coking Coal Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Coal
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹14,870 Cr
Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
7 / 100
+2 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in balance sheet stress. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

0.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +2 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
38.761.65%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress
+7.2 pts
Final Composite Risk7 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 07 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Low Interest Coverage
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins

Active Risk Objects (1)

CriticalHigh
Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
BHARATCOAL: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.36x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Interest coverage is dangerously low. Even a minor fall in profit could trigger a default."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)0.647.67✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+59.0+54.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Coal (n=3 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
38.76(+1.65%)
1M Divergence+18.59%
1 Week+2%
1 Month+16.22%
6 MonthsN/A
1 YearN/A
2 Year-2.66%
3 Year-2.66%
Sector Average (1M)-2.37%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in balance sheet stress remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. The current structural trajectory supports a stable risk outlook.

BHARATCOAL • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.15%
Trend QualityEarly Base
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score17.5%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing15%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.6059σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#392 of 2716
Top 14.43% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+2.0%
1M+16.2%
6M+0.0%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMAN/A
200 DMAN/A
150 DMA SlopeN/ANeutral
Relative Strength0.00%Neutral
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.0000
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (12).

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
5.252th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Low Interest Coverage

2026

Low Interest Coverage

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY202614,924128-6412,000