BHARATRASBharat Rasayan Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Pesticides & Agrochemicals
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹2,418 Cr
Primary DriverCompetitive Position
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
22 / 100
-4 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in competitive position. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

61.1th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹1,460.1▲1.69%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Competitive Position
+11.5 pts
Growth Sustainability
+10.0 pts
Final Composite Risk22 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 9 → 22 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Industrial Margin Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Inventory turnover
  • Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (9)

CriticalHigh
Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2024
Aggressive Capex (30.4%) amidst slow revenue growth (-9.9%).

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
BHARATRAS: Raw material costs consumed an additional 10.4% of revenue YoY.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Inventory growth (13.8%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (3.5%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
BHARATRAS: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 4 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
BHARATRAS: Net Profit collapsed by 62.6% from FY2024 Q4 to FY2025 Q4.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 25.6%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Revenue-Debt Divergence
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2024
BHARATRAS: Revenue fell 15.0% while Debt rose 188.1% in 2024 vs 2023.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)5.757.62✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+44.0+46.5📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Pesticides & Agrochemicals (n=18 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹1,460.1(+1.69%)
1M Divergence+3.18%
1 Week+0.69%
1 Month+5.45%
6 Months-43.64%
1 Year-35.36%
2 Year-45.42%
3 Year-40.47%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in competitive position suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Continued monitoring is necessary as risk levels remain above institutional safety parameters.

BHARATRAS • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score0%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.5630σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#2161 of 2716
Top 79.57% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+0.7%
1M+5.5%
6M-43.6%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹1,901.1
200 DMA₹2,062.19
150 DMA Slope-6.8038%Declining
Relative Strength-38.53%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.3974
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (19.5).
ADVANCEAdvance Agrolife Limited
14 Risk
Sector %ile44th
Delta+5
Active Flags3
Accel+1
Growth Sustainability

Stable

BHARATRASBharat Rasayan Limited
22 Risk
Sector %ile61th
Delta-4
Active Flags9
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Watch

DHANUKADhanuka Agritech Limited
36 Risk
Sector %ile83th
Delta+1
Active Flags16
Accel+2
Competitive Position

Watch

BESTAGROBest Agrolife Limited
47 Risk
Sector %ile94th
Delta+33
Active Flags15
Accel+2
Balance Sheet Stress

Moderate Deterioration

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
2.323.2th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Cash Conversion Deficit

2025

Industrial Margin Stress

2025

Inventory Stress

2024

Capex Efficiency Stress

2024

Cash Conversion Deficit

2024

Revenue-Debt Divergence

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20261,2831461321
FY20251,19914117285
FY20241,066964180
FY20231,25412521328